The latest from the Election & Survey Unit

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Watch this space for a recap of the latest polls and data-driven studies curated by the CBS News Election & Survey Unit!

1/26/2021

The Coronavirus Is Making Many Americans Feel More Distant from Friends and Family

Isolation as a result of the coronavirus pandemic may be taking its toll on many Americans. Half of Americans say they have felt more distant from close friends and family since the coronavirus began. About a third say things haven’t changed much for them, while a small percentage – 12% – say they have become closer since the pandemic began started.

There is little difference by income or region of the country, though adults under 30 (41%) are a little less likely to feel distant than older Americans (51%), and men (44%) are less likely to feel distant than women are (55%).

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Being married or unmarried – or having children or not – doesn’t seem to be a determining factor, though Democrats (57%) are more likely to say they feel more distant than either Republicans (42%) or independents (48%).

– Fred Backus

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This poll was conducted by telephone January 12-17, 2021 among a random sample of 1,010 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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1/17/2021

Americans see democracy under threat — CBS News poll

Americans see President-elect Joe Biden taking office amid both the health crisis of the pandemic — and what they decry as a confusing vaccine rollout that is far too slow — then more broadly, they voice deep concern about the health of democracy itself.

And it seems too facile to just say the nation is “divided” now, because in the wake of recent events, there’s active worry: Of potential threats to their way of life — from foreign adversaries to economic forces to natural disasters — Americans today say the biggest threat comes from inside the country, from “other people in America, and domestic enemies.”

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More from the poll here.

Americans criticize vaccine rollout as too slow– CBS News poll

Most Americans are not satisfied with the coronavirus vaccine distribution in their state, with a majority saying it is going too slowly and feeling that the process of how to go about getting a vaccine hasn’t been well-explained yet. This comes as more people are now interested in getting vaccinated, with those most eager to get one more critical of the speed of its rollout.

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More from the poll here.

1/14/2021

More from the latest CBS News poll…

A week before the inauguration, a third of Americans don’t think Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 election

With only a week to go before Joe Biden assumes the office of the presidency, a third of Americans say they do not consider Joe Biden to be the legitimate winner of the 2020 presidential election. 67% consider him to be the legitimate president, while 33% do not.

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Nearly all of the voters who do not consider Joe Biden the legitimate winner supported Donald Trump in November, and most consider themselves Republicans. While 96% of Democrats and 66% of independents consider Joe Biden to have legitimately won the 2020 election, just 31% of Republicans do.

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Three in four Americans say the event surrounding the 2020 election has made democracy in the U.S. more threatened

Americans of all political stripes seem shaken in their faith in democracy by the events of the last two months since the November 2020 presidential election. 75% of Americans say the events surrounding the 2020 presidential election, and all that has happened afterwards, has made them feel that democracy in the United States is more threatened.

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In a nation riven by political division, there is noticeable agreement across party lines on this. 81% of Democrats, and 75% of both Republicans and independents, feel that democracy in the United States is more threatened. But what that notion of democracy is – and what is threatening it – may be very different: Americans who think Joe Biden is not the legitimate president are just as likely as those who think he is to say American democracy is under threat.

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Majority approves of Twitter deactivating Trump’s account

A six-in-ten majority approves of Twitter deactivating Donald Trump’s account in the wake of last week’s attack on the U.S. Capitol. This includes 89% of Democrats — most of whom strongly approve of this action — and 60% of independents. Approval is also high (73%) among the one in six Americans who report using Twitter as a news source.

Republicans take the opposite view, with 78% disapproving, including 64% who strongly disapprove. This strong disapproval number is higher than the 51% of Republicans who, in a separate question, strongly disapprove of the actions taken by the people who forced their way into the Capitol.

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Majority say race a factor in how those who attacked Capitol were treated

A majority of Americans (54%) — and particularly Democrats and Black Americans — believe race was a factor in how law enforcement treated those who attacked the Capitol last week.

And among those who feel race was a factor, they overwhelmingly (81%) feel the protesters were treated better because most were White, rather than if they had been Black or people of color.

Partisanship is also strongly connected here. Most Republicans don’t feel race was a factor, a view that differs from the majority of Democrats and independents who feel it was.

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More here.

Nearly half of Americans think some GOP lawmakers encouraged violence

For many Americans, the GOP lawmakers who objected to counting the Electoral College votes in Congress share some of the blame for the violence that occurred at the nation’s Capitol. Nearly half — 47% — think some of these Republicans encouraged the violence that occurred.

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More here.

This CBS News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,521 U.S. residents interviewed between January 11-12, 2021. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as the 2020 presidential vote and registration status. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 points.

1/13/2021

Majority back impeachment and are concerned about more D.C. violence — CBS News poll

Even as they widely condemn the violence at the Capitol last week, Americans say there could be more in the days to come: 74% think it at least somewhat likely that there could be more acts of violence attempted next week, during President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration.

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Seventy percent of Americans don’t want to see President Trump’s supporters hold protests next week. But most of Mr. Trump’s 2020 voters, who are less likely than Americans overall to think violence is likely next week, would favor protests.

More immediately, a majority of Americans feel President Trump should be impeached now, as the House prepares to take up the matter.

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More from the poll here.

12/31/2020

Looking Back on 2020, and Ahead to 2021

2020 was not a happy year for most Americans. Just over half say that, personally, 2020 was a year filled mostly with sadness. Just 22% say it was a year filled mostly with happiness.

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But looking ahead, most Americans feel hopeful. 71% of Americans say they personally feel mostly hopeful. Just 17% feel mostly discouraged. Most Americans feel hopeful regardless of how they feel about the past twelve months, though those with a happier outlook on the past year are more likely to be hopeful (81%) than those who view the last twelve months with sadness (68%).

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Expectations for the coming year do come into play in terms of whether or not Americans plan to make New Year’s resolutions. Nearly half (46%) of Americans who feel hopeful about the next twelve months plan to make New Year’s resolutions, while just over a quarter (28%) of those who feel discouraged plan to do the same. Overall, 43% of Americans plan to make New Year’s resolutions, similar to a year ago.

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– Fred Backus

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This poll was conducted by telephone December 8-13, 2020 among a random sample of 1,003 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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12/30/2020

Americans Spent More Time on Electronic Devices in 2020

Perhaps it’s no surprise, but in 2020, most Americans say they spent more time engaging with electronic devices than they did the year before. 52% say the amount of time the spent interacting with electronic devices increased.

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Younger Americans were the most likely to increase their time with electronic devices. 62% of Americans under 50 say they spent more time interacting with electronic devices than they did in 2019, while most older Americans say they either spent the same amount of time or spent less time doing so.

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– Fred Backus

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This poll was conducted by telephone December 8-13, 2020 among a random sample of 1,003 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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12/29/2020

Eight in 10 Americans Say the Coronavirus Has Made it More Difficult to Make Plans

Two in three Americans say they miss spending more time with other people

Americans are having trouble making short term plans in the age of coronavirus: 81% say the pandemic has made it more difficult for them to make plans or schedule activities in the near future.

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Most Americans report a difference in the number of events they have scheduled compared to a year ago. 71% say they currently have fewer events scheduled in their calendars than they did twelve months ago, including large majorities of Americans regardless of age, race, gender, and income.

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And nearly half of Americans say that a major life event they had either planned to throw or attend had to be cancelled as a result of the outbreak.

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Those who are making fewer plans tend to view this development more negatively than positively. 66% say they miss spending more time with people, and 49% say having fewer plans makes them feel bored because they have less to do, compared to just 28% who feel relieved to have more free time.

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Some Americans, however, are making the best of things. 41% of Americans who have fewer plans say they have taken up a new hobby or pastime that they wouldn’t otherwise have had time for.

– Fred Backus

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This poll was conducted by telephone December 8-13, 2020 among a random sample of 1,003 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

12/18/2020

Most Americans Plan to See Fewer People this Holiday Season

The coronavirus outbreak seems poised to transform the way Americans will be experiencing the holidays this year. 70% of Americans say they plan to see fewer people this holiday season as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. Just over a quarter say they plan to see the same number of people as usual.

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Majorities of all age groups plan to see fewer people this holiday season, but this is particularly true of older Americans. Three in four seniors age 65 and older plan to see fewer people.

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There are some differences by political partisanship as well. Though majorities across the board say they will be seeing fewer people this holiday season because of the coronavirus, Democrats and independents are more likely to say so than Republicans.

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Christmas Trees

70% of Americans will have some sort of Christmas tree in in their home this year, and while more Americans will have an artificial tree than a real one, the percentage that plan on having a real tree in their home is up from last year: from 22% in 2019 to 28% this year. However, the percentage that will have no tree at all this year has also risen by the same amount.

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Jingle Bells is Still America’s Favorite Holiday Song

Like last year, Jingle Bells remains America’s favorite holiday song, volunteered by more than one in 10 Americans. Nearly 12% of Americans pick Jingle Bells as their favorite holiday song, ahead of Silent Night.

Here’s the whole top ten:

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– Fred Backus

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This poll was conducted by telephone December 8-13, 2020 among a random sample of 1,003 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

12/13/2020

CBS News poll: Most feel election is “settled” but Trump voters disagree

With the Electoral College poised to elect Joe Biden tomorrow, a sizable 62% majority of the nation’s voters feel the election is “over and settled” and it’s “time to move on;” large majorities feel their own votes were counted correctly, and a majority acknowledges Biden as the “legitimate winner.”

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But the President’s backers feel very differently: 82% of Trump voters say they do not consider Biden legitimate and – perhaps most notably for the coming transition month – almost half of Trump’s voters say Trump should refuse to concede after that Electoral College vote happens, and instead do all he can to stay in power.

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More from the poll here.

12/11/2020

Drinking in the Age of Covid

We’re heading into the time when many Americans usually start attending holiday parties, but the coronavirus pandemic may have changed how Americans get together to enjoy cocktails. 30% of Americans say they have attended a cocktail party online where they’ve socialized with friends or family over Zoom or some other video conferencing service, though younger adults are far more likely to have done so than older Americans.

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And some Americans report drinking less alcohol as a result of the pandemic. A quarter have cut down their alcohol consumption, while just 10% of Americans say they have been drinking more alcoholic beverages. Half say the amount of alcohol they’ve been drinking hasn’t really changed.

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– Fred Backus

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This poll was conducted by telephone November 10-15, 2020 among a random sample of 1,007 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

12/4/2020

Americans Plan to Do More Shopping Online than in Person this Holiday Season

For the first time, more Americans say they will do most of their holiday shopping online than in person this year. Just 33% of Americans plan to do most of their holiday shopping by going to stores in person, down from a 53% majority in 2018 (when CBS News last asked the question), and 69% in 2011. Nearly half – 46% – will do most of their holiday shopping online, and another 14% say it will be an even mix.

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The shift is largely among older Americans. Two years ago, just 27% of Americans age 50 and older planned to do most of their shopping online. Today 45% plan to do so, virtually the same percentage as younger adults.

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As we’ve seen in previous years, Americans with higher incomes also plan do to more of their shopping online than those with lower household incomes, though the percentage who are doing so has increased among all income levels.

About a third of Americans plan to spend less money on holiday shopping this year than they did last year. Most Americans say they will spend about the same amount.

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As might be expected, Americans earning less are more likely to spend less. 44%of those with household incomes below $50,000 a year plan to spend less, compared to 24% of Americans earning between $50,000 and $100,000 and 18% of those making over $100,000 a year.

– Fred Backus

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This poll was conducted by telephone November 10-15, 2020 among a random sample of 1,007 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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11/23/2020

Thanksgiving in 2020

This Thanksgiving, few Americans will be celebrating with large numbers of people from outside of their households, and half will be celebrating with only their immediate families. Still, a quarter plan to enjoy the holiday with five or more people from outside their homes, including 9% who will be celebrating with more than 10.

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Political partisanship plays a role in how many people Americans plan to celebrate Thanksgiving with. Most Democrats and independents will have Thanksgiving dinner with just their immediate families, while this is true of just a third of Republicans. One in five Republicans plan to spend Thanksgiving with more than 10 people outside of their household.

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– Fred Backus

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This poll was conducted by telephone November 10-15, 2020 among a random sample of 1,007 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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11/20/2020

The Sunday before Thanksgiving marks an annual tradition at CBS News: The “Sunday Morning” 2020 Food issue. We’ve done some polling to go along with this year’s issue on food insecurity, snacking, and eating and cooking in the era of Covid19.

Food Insecurity

More than a third of Americans say there has been a point in their lives where they didn’t know where their next meal would come from. 37% say they have experienced this, while 63% have not.

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Americans with lower incomes are more likely to have faced this predicament, though many who currently have higher incomes have dealt with this as well. 44% of Americans with household incomes of less than $50,000 a year say there has been a point where they have not known where they would get their next meal, and this is also true of 31% of Americans earning $75,000 a year or more.

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One in five Americans say they don’t feel their household incomes are enough to meet their bills and obligations, and those who feel this way may be facing some tough choices on how to spend their money. More than half who are having trouble making ends meet say they have had the experience of not knowing where their next meal would come from.

When it comes to addressing the needs of the hungry, most Americans feel this is a responsibility that is shared by the local community at large, rather than only being up to individuals and their families to make sure they provide enough food for themselves. But political partisanship and ideology play a factor: While six in 10 Democrats and liberals feel the local communities bear some responsibility for making sure no one goes hungry, only half of Republicans and independents (and moderates and conservatives) say this is so.

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Dining Out Indoors

For those who have more money, dining out is an option, but Americans are divided about just how safe it is to go out to eat at a restaurant these days. 43% of Americans say they would be somewhat comfortable dining out at a restaurant indoors (though just 17% would be very comfortable), while 51% say it makes them either somewhat or very uneasy.

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Americans under 50, who may be less at risk from serious effects of the coronavirus, express greater comfort with the idea of eating at a restaurant indoors: 47% of Americans under 50 would be at least somewhat comfortable, compared to 39% of older Americans. But there are bigger differences along partisan lines. 63% of Republicans say they would be at least somewhat comfortable with indoor dining, compared to 42% of independents and 28% of Democrats.

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Cooking at Home

Instead of going out to eat, most Americans are doing more cooking at home. 54% say they are cooking more, an even higher percentage than the 44% of Americans who say they have been watching more TV since the pandemic began.

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And the more concerned one is about indoor dining, the more likely one is to be doing more cooking at home. 65% of Americans who are very uneasy with the idea of eating inside at a restaurant say they have been doing more cooking, compared to just 37% who are very comfortable with the idea.

Family Recipes

Americans who are doing more cooking are getting some help from their elders. Eight in 10 Americans overall – as well as eight in 10 who are doing more cooking at home since the pandemic began – say their household cooks with at least one recipe that has been passed down from older generations.

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Snacks

And for those who either don’t want to cook or dine out, there are always snacks to tide you over. Most Americans have between two and five different types of snacks in their homes, though more than a quarter have more than this, including more than one in 10 Americans who have upwards of 10 different types of snack foods.

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As for what people like to snack on, Americans have a slight preference for sugar over salt. 44% of Americans say they usually prefer something sweet when having a snack, while 36% usually prefer something salty. Another one in five Americans doesn’t have a preference either way.

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While men have a slight preference for salty foods, women prefer food that is sweet. Younger Americans also prefer food that is sweet, while adults age 50 and older are more divided.

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Those who have 10 or more different types of snacks tend to prefer salty snacks, while those who have fewer prefer something sweet.

– Fred Backus

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This poll was conducted by telephone November 10-15, 2020 among a random sample of 1,007 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

11/19/2020

Nearly a quarter of Americans say they have had trouble paying their rent or mortgage as a result of the coronavirus and the resulting economic shutdowns.

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Not all Americans have been affected equally: women are more likely to have had trouble paying for housing than men, younger Americans have had more trouble than older Americans, and lower income and Americans with lower levels of education have also had more trouble paying their rent or mortgages.

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Some of these Americans have relocated. 17% of those who report having trouble paying their rent or mortgage have changed their residences within the past 12 months.

Many Americans also have financial concerns when looking ahead to the future. 28% are at least somewhat concerned that they will lose their home to eviction or foreclosure, and 36% are at least somewhat concerned that they will not have enough money for food or groceries.

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– Fred Backus

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This poll was conducted by telephone October 13-18, 2020 among a random sample of 1,001 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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11/13/2020

Exit poll analysis: Which voters supported Biden or Trump in Georgia and North Carolina?

Georgia

In Georgia, which has not voted to send a Democrat to the White House since Bill Clinton won the state in 1992, Joe Biden was able to hold onto some traditional Democratic voting groups like Black voters and younger voters while also making inroads with White voters, particularly those with college degrees, and older voters, CBS News exit polls show.

North Carolina

Although President Trump was projected by CBS News as the winner of North Carolina, President-elect Joe Biden narrowed the gender gap in North Carolina and turned out Black voters in greater numbers – and won them by slightly larger margins – than Clinton did four years ago, and he narrowly edged out Mr. Trump among White voters with college degrees, by one point.

More here.

11/10/2020: Voters’ views on Obamacare

The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments on Tuesday on the latest challenge to the Affordable Care Act.

Voters in the presidential election are largely divided on what the Supreme Court should do about Obamacare, according to CBS News exit polling.

There are political divisions. Three-quarters of Democrats who voted want Obamacare kept in place, along with just over half of independents. Seven in 10 Republican voters want the law overturned.

Roughly one in 10 voters chose health care policy as their top issue and a majority of them say they want the Court to keep Obamacare in place. -Jennifer De Pinto

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Exit poll results may have updated since this was published.

11/9/2020: Most voters remain hesitant about getting a coronavirus vaccine

A recent CBS News Poll, conducted just days before Election Day, found most voters taking a wait and see approach on getting a coronavirus vaccine.

Six in 10 said they would consider getting one should it become available this year, but would wait to see what happened to others first.

Just one in five voters said they would get a vaccine as soon as it became available.

Views are similar to what they were in September. Most Democrats and Republicans said they would not get a vaccine right away.

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There’s skepticism across demographic groups. Most voters across all age groups said they would wait to see what happens to others first before getting a vaccine. There are some differences by race as more White voters (23%) than Black voters (13%) said they would get a vaccine as soon as it was available, but most in each group still said they would wait and see what happens to others first before getting one themselves.

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The CBS News survey of 5,175 registered voters in the U.S. was conducted by YouGov between October 26-30, 2020. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on voter registration lists, the U.S. Census American Community Survey, and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as 2016 Presidential vote. The margin of error for registered voters is +/- 1.5 points.

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11/7/2020

How Biden won the 2020 election: Exit poll analysis

Joe Biden was projected as the winner of the 2020 presidential election largely because he was able to convince enough voters that he could better handle the coronavirus pandemic and that he had the right temperament for the job, according to CBS News’ analysis of the exit poll data.

The data show that voters who supported Biden were looking for a candidate with good judgment and for someone who could unite the country. Bringing the country together might be difficult, since voters who backed President Trump did not say they saw the coronavirus as a serious problem — as Biden voters do — and roughly half of these voters say they’re scared of a Biden presidency.

The president-elect had the support of some groups that traditionally vote Democratic and made some inroads with some not-so-traditional Democratic groups, like men and seniors.

More here,

11/6/2020: More from the CBS News Exit Poll

A CLOSE RACE IN NEVADA

President Trump has bumped up his support with Latinos from 2016 and Biden has improved with young voters compared to Hillary Clinton four years ago, keeping this race close.

Mr. Trump has an edge over Biden with Latino Men, a group that went for Clinton by double digits four years ago.

NEVADA LATINO VOTE

2020 Biden 56%, Trump 37%

2020 Clinton 60%, Trump 29%

Biden’s vote share among younger voters is higher than than Clinton’s was in 2016.

NEVADA VOTERS UNDER AGE 30

2020 Biden 59%, Trump 35%

2020 Clinton 52%, Trump 35%

And there is a gender gap with men voting for Mr. Trump and women voting for Biden.

-by Jennifer De Pinto

More from the CBS News Exit Poll in Nevada here

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GEORGIA: WHY IT’S CLOSE

Part of what’s keeping the race tight in Georgia is Joe Biden’s improved performance among White voters compared to Hillary Clinton in 2016, particularly among White voters with a college degree. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump continues to run strong with groups who backed him four years ago.

GEORGIA: WHITE VOTERS

2020 Biden 29%, Trump 70%

2016 Clinton 21%, Trump 75%

Margins are an important metric when looking at support in various voter groups: in some cases, whether a candidate “wins” a group may be less important than how much he or she wins or loses it by.

GEORGIA: WHITE VOTERS WITH COLLEGE DEGREE

2020: Biden 42% Trump 56%

2016: Biden 28% Trump 69%

Biden is winning groups that often vote Democratic like young voters and Black voters.

GEORGIA: BLACK VOTERS

2020: Biden 87% Trump 11%

Trump is running strong with his coalition like White evangelicals and rural voters.

GEORGIA: WHITE EVANGELICALS

2020: Biden 14% Trump 85%

-by Jennifer De Pinto

More from the CBS News Exit Poll in Georgia here

10/25/2020

Trump-Biden race is tight in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina — CBS News Battleground Tracker poll

In the final stretch of the campaign, we find three Southern battlegrounds that could still go either way. Our estimates show Joe Biden with just a two-point edge over President Trump in Florida, Biden up four points in North Carolina, and the contest even in Georgia.

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More from the poll here.

Black voters motivated, but concerned about votes counting — CBS News/BET poll

Black voters are motivated and engaged in this election, but fewer than half are very confident their vote will be counted correctly, and more than half express some concern about potential voter intimidation at the polls.

Black voters are an essential part of the Democratic Party’s coalition, and they are overwhelmingly backing Joe Biden over President Trump in this election. But Black voters aren’t uniformly excited about 2020. We find younger Black voters are less likely to be thinking about the election, and less motivated to vote than older voters. Younger Black voters are also not as enthusiastic in their support for the Democratic ticket. Despite a lower level of enthusiasm for Biden, these younger voters are largely in agreement with their older counterparts in at least one area — at least nine in 10 say they would never consider voting for Mr. Trump.

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More from the poll here.

11/1/2020

Biden leads, Trump needs Election Day surge to win — CBS News Battleground Tracker

Joe Biden heads into Election Day preferred by voters who have already cast their ballots early. President Trump has a lead among those who plan to show up on November 3. So will Biden’s lead hold up? If we trot out the old horserace analogy, Biden has a lead, but we still don’t know how long the track is. We need to see how big that Election-Day vote will be.

So we took our baseline state model estimates from our initial polling, which sums to Biden holding an Electoral College lead heading into Election Day, and also estimated what it would take for each candidate to ultimately win.

We estimate from our polling that Mr. Trump is doing, on average, over 30 percentage points better among likely Election-Day voters than early voters. We know the approximate size of the early vote so far, and we vary the potential size of the Election-Day vote to explore two scenarios.

More here.

10/18/2020

Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin, has edge in Arizona — CBS News Battleground Tracker poll

From Wisconsin to Arizona, as in much of the country, these final weeks of the campaign look to be about who actually votes, because voters say they’ve made their choices, and many have made it official. Mail ballot returns are pouring in, and almost all remaining voters say they’re locked into their decisions anyway.

The coronavirus outbreak continues to shape the election in these states. Wisconsin is now going through another rise in cases, and Arizona was hard-hit earlier this year. It’s particularly related to the views of those voting for Democratic nominee Joe Biden, who note it as a big reason they’re picking him over President Trump and believe he would handle the outbreak better. Biden is cutting into the president’s 2016 support levels with key groups like seniors, men and White, non-college voters, helping to push him to a 5-point lead in Wisconsin, and a 3-point lead in Arizona.

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More from the poll here.

10/12/2020

Biden leads Trump in Michigan and Nevada, and race is tied in Iowa — CBS News Battleground Tracker poll

Most voters in the battleground states of Michigan, Nevada and Iowa feel President Trump set a bad example for the nation during his own recent battle with the coronavirus, handling things in a way they call irresponsible.

More voters say it made them feel angry rather than feel confident, and many even say they were offended. Most voters in Michigan think the Trump administration’s policies are making the outbreak worse. And with voters still concerned about getting the virus themselves, large majorities suspect that, as he recovered, the president received better medical treatments than they would.

Meanwhile Joe Biden holds a large advantage over Mr. Trump on being seen as someone who cares about others, draws more favorable ratings for how he handles himself personally and, as in other states recently, would be better on handling the outbreak.

In Michigan, Biden has now drawn even with Mr. Trump on handling the economy, too — which was one measure where the president had enjoyed an edge.

Biden remains in the lead in Michigan, ahead by six points, and he’s up in Nevada by six, and is even in Iowa — a state the president won handily four years ago.

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More from the poll here.

10/4/2020

Trump and Biden even in Ohio, as Biden leads in Pennsylvania — Battleground Tracker poll

In an election held during a pandemic, partisan voters in two key battlegrounds continue to divide over casting ballots by mail versus in person. In Pennsylvania, where more than 2 million have requested mail ballots, most Democrats say they’ll vote by mail, while Republicans overwhelmingly say they’ll vote in person. And in both Ohio and Pennsylvania, President Trump is the preferred candidate among those planning to vote in person, while Joe Biden is the overwhelming preference among those who plan to vote by mail. This polling was completed before the president’s hospitalization on Friday.

Overall, voters’ preferences in these two important states remain much as they were this summer. Voters in Ohio show an even preference between Mr. Trump and Biden, and Pennsylvania’s voters continue to give Biden a lead over Mr. Trump, by seven points.

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More from the poll here.

9/30/2020

Debate-watchers say Biden won first debate, but most felt “annoyed” – CBS News poll

In the first presidential debate between President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden, voters who watched Tuesday night say Biden won the debate, but those who watched the heated exchanges overwhelmingly called the debate’s tone negative, and most said they felt annoyed watching it.

Forty-eight percent say Biden won, while 41% think Trump was the winner. Biden’s margin here is not too different than his lead in national polls. Ten percent called the debate a tie.

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More here.

9/29/2020

CBS NEWS BATTLEGROUND TRACKER POLL

The First Debate: Voters who plan to watch are rooting for their candidate, few are still trying to decide

In an election where almost everyone says they’ve already made up their minds, few debate watchers tonight say they are trying to decide who to vote for. Instead, they’re rooting for their candidate, looking to see how they do, and they’re also playing political consultant, offering some views on debate strategy for their candidates. CBS News surveyed a representative group of likely voters who say they plan to watch tonight.

Voters who plan to watch say they are tuning in primarily to see how their favorite candidate does, but they also have some views on debate strategy for their candidate.

Both Biden and Trump voters want their candidates to explain their plans and inspire confidence. Both items are at the top of the list when asked what their candidate should do tonight. This is the case for both Joe Biden’s and Donald Trump’s supporters.

Many of Biden’s voters think he needs to avoid mistakes tonight. 57% of Biden’s supporters say he should avoid mistakes, by comparison, just 40% of Trump’s voters say that about their candidate.

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Trump’s backers (33%) are twice as likely as Biden’s (14%) to say their candidate needs to “be entertaining.”

Showing a more personal side is important too. Majorities of each candidate’s supporters say their candidate should “show who he is as a person” — more of Biden’s voters feel he needs to do that than Trump’s voters think their candidate does.

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While most voters who plan to watch tonight are doing so to see how their candidate performs, many say they are tuning in “just for the entertainment about it.” Few – just 6% – say they are watching because they are still deciding who to vote for. – Jennifer De Pinto

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This CBS News survey of 7,447 registered voters, including 4,622 likely voters who plan to watch the debate, was conducted by YouGov between September 25-28, 2020.

The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on voter registration lists, the U.S. Census American Community Survey, and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as 2016 Presidential vote. The margin of error is +/- 1.8 pts.

9/29/2020

Biden Lacks Energy, Trump lacks the Right Temperament – More from the Battleground Tracker

As the presidential candidates gear up for a debate that will put their personalities and attributes on display to millions of Americans, our latest Battleground Tracker polls show a glimpse into how voters view them in two critical states in the South that are considered toss ups right now: Georgia and North Carolina. Overall, Joe Biden has the advantage on empathy and disposition, most see him as a person who cares about people and who has the right temperament, and he beats Donald Trump on both of these measures in both states – particularly among Black voters and White voters with college degrees.

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Both candidates are viewed as intelligent by over half of voters, but Biden has a slight edge here as well, particularly among women.

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But Donald Trump is seen as having more energy. Despite being only a few years younger than his adversary, Donald Trump outpaces Joe Biden on this attribute by a wide margin.

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These results are similar to what was found nationally in a Battleground Tracker poll conducted earlier this month.

Views of the candidates are highly partisan and tied to vote, with most Democrats and Biden supporters saying Joe Biden possesses all of these qualities and that President Trump possesses none of them; and the opposite is true of Republicans and Trump voters. Still, a few voters do have doubts about their own candidates. In North Carolina, 17% of Biden supporters say their candidate lacks energy – his biggest weakness. 63% of Biden voters who say he lacks energy are voting for him mainly because they dislike Donald Trump not because they like him, compared to 47% of Biden voters overall.

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For Donald Trump, 26% of his voters say he doesn’t have the right temperament. Though most of these voters say they probably won’t change their minds, the 64% who say their support is very strong and that they’ve decided is considerably lower than the 83% of Trump voters who say so overall. These voters also say they are less motivated to vote compared to those who have no doubts about Donald Trump’s temperament. While most Trump voters are supporting the president because they like him, most who think he lacks the right temperament support Donald Trump either to oppose Joe Biden or because he is the Republican nominee.

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Concerns about Donald Trump’s temperament may cut very slightly into the extreme partisanship that characterizes vote choice this year: 14% of Republicans who don’t think Donald Trump has the right temperament are voting for Biden in North Carolina.

A few voters are willing to give the candidate they are voting against good marks on some of these measures as well. Four in 10 Biden voters in North Carolina concede that Donald Trump has energy, while a third of Trump voters give credit to Biden for caring about people, and a quarter say he’s intelligent (just 12% of Biden voters say the same of Donald Trump here).

– Fred Backus

These surveys were conducted on behalf of CBS News by YouGov between September 22-25, 2020. They are based on representative samples of 1,164 registered voters in Georgia and 1,213 in North Carolina. Margins of error for registered voters are +/- 3.3 points in Georgia and +/- 3.6 points in North Carolina.

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9/28/2020

As the debate over the Supreme Court nominee heats up, a look at the public’s views on abortion and Roe v. Wade

  • More than six in 10 Americans want Roe v. Wade kept in place — including many who would nonetheless like to see abortion more restricted.
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  • Majorities of Democrats and independents want the ruling kept in place; Republicans are divided.
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  • The public’s views on abortion and its availability have held fairly steady over the years. Democrats and liberals are more inclined to think abortion should be generally available and Republicans and conservatives are more likely to want limits on abortion, or say it should not be permitted.
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  • While some Americans want to see stricter limits on abortion, most (60%) of that group supports keeping Roe v. Wade in place. Americans who say abortion shouldn’t be permitted at all overwhelmingly would like to see the ruling overturned.
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Gender

  • Political party and ideology are more related to views on abortion and Roe v. Wade than gender. Similar majorities of men (60%) and women (65%) think Roe v. Wade should be kept in place.
  • There are differences within women by party, women who identify as Democrats (eight in 10) favor keeping Roe v. Wade, a number that drops to 45% among Republican women.
  • Women with college degrees are generally more supportive than women without a college degree of making abortion generally available and to want Roe v Wade to be kept in place. Still, a majority of women without a college degree want Roe v. Wade to stay – it’s largely political party and ideology that are the driving factors.
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Religion

  • Looking at religious affiliation, majorities of both Protestants (54%) and Catholics (59% think Roe v. Wade should stand. Most white evangelicals, many of whom feel abortion should be permitted at all, think the ruling should be overturned.
  • How frequently one attends religious services plays a role regardless of religious affiliation. Those who attend religious services weekly are inclined to feel abortion should not be permitted and to think Roe should be overturned, while those who attend less often support keeping Roe v. Wade in place.

– Jennifer De Pinto

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This analysis is based on CBS News Poll conducted by telephone May 29- June 2, 2020 among a random sample of 1,309 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, Pennsylvania. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cellphones. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

9/27/2020

Tight races in Georgia and North Carolina, while Supreme Court is another factor — Battleground Tracker

Voters say the Supreme Court vacancy has added to the already high stakes of the presidential election.

In the battlegrounds of Georgia and North Carolina, most say it makes the election feel even more important — it’s one more factor in an election in which most voters from both parties think their culture and way of life are at stake.

President Trump’s voters here think the Democrats want society to change too fast, and Joe Biden’s voters think Republicans want to go back to the past. The court fight may not be changing votes, since most were already locked in, but many describe it as adding even more motivation to the race. Both sides are about equally likely to say they’ll vote (and some already have). In two contests that will turn almost entirely on turnout, that’s essential.

And as important as the Supreme Court is, voters tell us it is just one of the major topics on their minds. Issues of race continue to split voters in these fast-growing, changing Southern states, and views on the protests are a major factor, too. The Black voters who make up sizable shares of the electorate here voice agreement with the Black Lives Matter movement, as do White Democrats, but the president’s supporters say too much attention is being paid to discrimination against Black people today.

And it all adds up to a razor-thin horse race: Georgia remains a toss-up, with Mr. Trump up just a point; it favored Biden by a point this summer. North Carolina sees Biden up two; he had a four-point edge this summer. Mr. Trump is up comfortably in neighboring South Carolina, but that state offers some real Senate drama of its own.

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More from the poll here.

9/22/2020

The End of Summer

As of today summer has officially come to an end, and most Americans are happy to turn the page to autumn. While 30% of Americans say they are sad to see summer end, 64% are looking forward to the fall.

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Still, summer is America’s favorite season of the year, just barely edging out fall and spring. Fewer Americans pick winter as their favorite season.

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There are some differences by gender. Women have a preference for summer, while men slightly prefer fall.

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And while Americans under the age of 50 prefer summer, older Americans prefer either spring or fall.

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Not surprisingly, it is Americans who prefer summer that are the most likely to be sad to see it go. Americans who prefer the other seasons are looking forward to the fall.

– Fred Backus

This poll was conducted by telephone August 11-16, 2020 among a random sample of 1,008 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

Which is your favorite season of the year?

Winter 18%

Spring 25%

Summer 29%

Fall 27%

Don’t know/no answer 1%

This year, are you sad to see summer come to an end, or are you looking forward to seeing fall arrive?

Sad to see summer end 30%

Looking forward to seeing fall arrive 64%

Don’t know/no answer 7%

9/20/2020

Florida race tightens and Trump has edge over Biden in Texas — Battleground Tracker poll

Joe Biden still has a small edge in Florida, but the contest has tightened since our last poll in July, from six points down to two now, amid an ebbing — if still sizable — concern about coronavirus, while President Trump has picked up a few more of the state’s remaining uncertain voters, rebuilt some of his lead among White voters and leads Joe Biden on handling the economy. (And of course, this is Florida, where races are usually close.)

The poll was finished just before the news of the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. So it remains unknown how a court vacancy might shape the presidential race in this and in other states, but we do know voters are already overwhelmingly locked into their choices with strong support, and future polls will see if it impacts voters’ already sky-high motivation to turn out, too.

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In Texas, the race still looks tight as well, though the president maintains his small edge from the summer, adding perhaps a point of breathing room and is up by two points; it was one point in July.

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More from the poll here.

9/18/2020

Minnesota: Bidens’s lead boosted by more support from young voters

Both presidential candidates travel to Minnesota today – a state that Joe Biden would like to keep in the Democratic column, where’s it been since 1976, and one that President Donald Trump has in his sights on, after losing it just narrowly to Hillary Clinton four years ago.

The latest CBS News Battleground Tracker shows Minnesota may be out of reach for President Trump…at least right now. Biden leads Mr. Trump by nine points and one of the groups helping contribute to that lead is young voters.

Biden currently has a 19-point advantage over the President among voters ages 18 to 29 — a group Hillary Clinton won by just three points. It was among her weakest performances with young voters of the states she won, based on exit polls.

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Throughout the 2016 Democratic primaries, young voters backed Clinton’s rival Bernie Sanders in big numbers. Most young Democratic voters nationwide didn’t see Clinton as honest and trustworthy and some of that negativity carried over into the general election. More of Minnesota’s young voters had an unfavorable view of Clinton (52%) than a favorable one (46%) on Election Day. One in 10 Minnesota voters under age 30 backed either Gary Johnson or Jill Stein, a higher percentage than any age group.

Today, Biden is viewed positively by young voters (who are more likely to identify as Democrats than Republicans) on the way he handles himself personally. 55% like the way he does, the highest percentage of any age group. And seven in 10 of Minnesota’s young voters dislike how the President handles himself. In addition, young voters think Biden would do a better job on key issues like the coronavirus outbreak, the economy and climate change.

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But some young voters may not be feeling the love. While they think Biden is paying more attention to their needs of concerns than Trump is, 45% think he is paying too little attention to young people, about the same number who think he is paying the right amount of attention (43%). And might this impact turnout? Currently, eight in 10 young voters in Minnesota say they are very motivated to vote, but they remain less likely than older voters to say they’ll definitely vote. – Jennifer De Pinto

9/13/2020

Biden gains edge in Arizona over Trump and has big lead in Minnesota — Battleground Tracker poll

Every four years it can seem the path to the presidency runs through the same list of well-trodden battleground states. But this time, we’re on some newer turf: the Democrats are contesting some states in the fast-growing Sunbelt – notably Arizona, which has been in the Republican column all but once since Eisenhower. And the Republicans would love to leverage their White, working-class support in the Upper Midwest to flip Minnesota, which oh-so-narrowly eluded them four years ago to keep its string of Democratic votes unbroken since 1976.

Right now that potential trade looks tilted in favor of the Democrats. Let’s start in Arizona, where Joe Biden has moved out to a small lead, ahead by three points, an edge that’s up from the tied race we found back in July. It was then we first saw concern about COVID and the President’s handling of it putting the state in play. Though that virus concern has come off its highs of the summer, it remains for a sizable two-thirds of voters, and is still closely tied to vote: the more concerned a voter is, the less likely they are to be voting for the President.

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About 1,600 miles north in Minnesota, we find the Republicans with their work really cut out for them. Biden has a substantial nine-point lead, backed by improvement over Democrats’ 2016 performance with college-degree holding voters, particularly college-educated White women. His current percentage is 13 points better than Hillary Clinton’s was in 2016 and is closer to what Democrats got in the 2018 midterms.

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More from the poll here.

9/9/20

Over a Third of Voters Plan to Vote by Mail in 2020

While Biden Leads Among Mail-in Voters, Trump Leads Among Voters Planning to Vote in Person

With less than two months to go before Election Day, the prospect of mail in ballots determining the outcome of the 2020 presidential election after Election Day night looms large. About a third of registered voters nationwide say they would prefer to vote by mail or absentee this year – a larger proportion than has ever voted this way in any past presidential election. Among those who say they usually vote in person, one in five want to vote by mail this year.

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Few who are planning to vote by mail foresee many problems. Six in 10 think voting by mail in their state will be easy; just one in five thinks it will be either inconvenient or difficult. Not even recent experience of delays of postal deliveries seems to concern vote-by-mail voters: 55% of vote-by-mail voters say they have experienced postal delays in recent weeks, but most still expect the vote-by-mail process to be easy.

But the size of the mail-in vote this year – as well as the partisan differences between those who would prefer to vote by mail and those who would prefer to vote in person – has implications for Election Day. As we’ve seen throughout the summer, far more Democrats say they prefer to vote by mail than Republicans: 50% of Democrats do, compared to just 15% of Republicans. And while just a third of independents prefer to vote by mail, this rises to 56% of independents who say they lean Democratic.

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And while Democrats are moving in the direction of more mail-in voting, Republicans are not. 30% of Democrats say they have usually voted by mail, now half say they would prefer to vote this way in 2020. But little has changed among Republicans: 13% of Republican voters say they have usually voted by mail, and a similar percentage – 15% – say they would prefer to vote that way this year. Moreover, many Republicans are moving in the opposite direction: 36% of Republican voters who say they usually vote by mail or absentee would prefer to vote in person this year.

As a result, while Joe Biden overwhelmingly leads among voters who would prefer to vote by mail, Donald Trump holds a substantial 20-point lead among voters who would prefer to vote in person. In most states, Election Day vote results will be counted before mail-in ballots will be. If the current pattern holds, one candidate could seemingly be ahead in the vote count until mail-in ballots are tabulated. So even if Joe Biden’s 10 point lead in the national popular vote holds up until Election Day, Donald Trump is likely to have the lead until all mail-in ballots are counted based on his substantial lead among those planning to vote in person.

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We see this divide in many of the battleground states being contested this year as well. Take Wisconsin, for instance – a contested state in which Joe Biden currently holds a six-point lead in the latest Battleground Tracker poll. In Wisconsin, Biden’s lead is predicated on an overwhelming advantage of mail-in voters, while Trump leads by double-digits among those who would vote in person.

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And Wisconsin is not alone. The same trend is evident in a number of key battleground states polled over the summer that are either toss-ups or leaning in Biden’s direction. In state polls taken in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Biden has a commanding lead among mail-in voters, but Trump maintains a double digit lead among those who plan to vote in person.

– Fred Backus

9/6/20

CBS NEWS BATTLEGROUND TRACKER POLL: NATIONAL, WISCONSIN CONTESTS STEADY AMID PROTESTS; MORE THINK BIDEN TRYING TO CALM SITUATION

Attention to the protests has not changed the Presidential horse race, which former Vice President Joe Biden still leads by the same margins nationally and in the battleground state of Wisconsin. Here’s why: though neither candidate gets rave reviews for all they’ve said about the matter, Biden is seen by more as trying to calm the situation, while views of the President show slightly more thinking he encourages fighting than calms things. And the larger notion that violence could come to “the suburbs” finds little concern among those actually in the suburbs. Biden maintains his lead over Trump nationally and is also ahead in Wisconsin, as he was in early August.

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More here.

Voters skeptical about potential COVID-19 vaccine and say that one this year would be rushed

Skepticism about getting a coronavirus vaccine has grown since earlier this summer, and most voters say if a vaccine were made available this year, their first thought would be that it was rushed through without enough testing.

Just 21% of voters nationwide now say they would get a vaccine as soon as possible if one became available at no cost, down from 32% in late July. Most would consider it but would wait to see what happens to others before getting one.

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More here.

9/4/20

Live Performances…on the Screen

We’re experiencing a time when attending large live performances such as concerts and musicals is not possible for many Americans, but though few think watching them on a screen is any more fun, many Americans don’t think they are worse off for it either. While 43% think it is less enjoyable to watch a live performance on TV or online, nearly as many – 39% – don’t see much of a difference. Just 15% think it is more enjoyable.

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Younger Americans in particular tend to prefer being there in person: about half say such events are more enjoyable being there. But this is true of just a third of Americans 55 and older. Older Americans tend to be just as happy watching live events on TV or streaming as they are being there in person. – Fred Backus

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This poll was conducted by telephone July 14-19, 2020 among a random sample of 1,002 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

In general, do you find watching a live performance such as a concert or a stage musical on television or online to be more enjoyable than watching them in person, less enjoyable, or doesn’t it really matter to you either way?

More enjoyable 15%

Less enjoyable 43

Doesn’t matter 39

Don’t know/no answer 3

8/28/2020

Some Summer Polling as the Season Draws to a Close…

Back in July we asked some questions about summer. Here are some of the results:

Summer Reading

If you didn’t finish that long summer reading list you set up for yourself at the beginning of the summer, you may not be alone: most Americans don’t read more books during the summer than they do during the rest of the year. 14% of Americans say they read fewer books in the summer compared to 12% who say they read more. Seven in 10 say they read the same number of books during summer than they do the rest of the year. Results were similar when we last asked this three years ago.

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Younger adults are the most likely to increase their reading over the summer. One in five adults under 30 read more books over the summer than the rest of the year, compared to one in 10 older Americans.

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What types of books do Americans prefer to read during the summer? On the whole, they tend towards non-fiction: while 40% prefer fiction, 46% prefer non-fiction. And it doesn’t seem like this changes much during the summer, either. When CBS News asked in March 2019 what Americans preferred to read generally, the results were nearly identical.

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Summer Refreshment

More Americans find iced tea to be the most refreshing thing to have on a hot summer day than lemonade. When asked to choose from a list of items, 27% picked iced tea, while 22% picked lemonade. Beer came in third at 17%, followed by ice cream (13%).

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There are some gender differences, however. While women tend to prefer iced tea and lemonade, men are split between iced tea and beer.

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– by Fred Backus

This poll was conducted by telephone July 14-19, 2020 among a random sample of 1,002 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

Compared to the rest of the year, do you read more books in the summer, fewer books in the summer, or do you read about the same number of books in the summer as you do the rest of the year?

More 12%

Fewer 14%

Same 70%

Don’t know/No answer 3%

Generally speaking, which type of book do you usually prefer reading in the summer, fiction or non-fiction?

Fiction 40%

Non-fiction 46%

Don’t read books (vol.) 11%

Don’t know/no answer 3Which one of the following do you find most refreshing on a hot summer day?

Iced tea 27%

Lemonade 22%

Beer 17%

Wine 2%

Soda 8%

A popsicle 7%

Ice cream 13%

None of these (vol.) 3%

Don’t know/ no answer *

8/27/2020: Republican Convention – Day 4

Going Into the Convention, Republicans Focused on “Law and Order”

President Trump tonight is expected to put an emphasis on “law and order,” an issue that’s top of mind for Republicans.

Heading into the GOP convention, our latest Battleground Tracker polling found Republicans’ top issues after the economy included policing and law enforcement issues, and the recent protests.

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In the survey (which was conducted just prior to the events in Kenosha, Wisconsin) voters were asked about recent protests and we found different views of what was happening split by partisanship.

About three-quarters of Republicans say the protests have been made up of people trying to destroy property and cause harm. On the other side of the political spectrum, half of Democrats believe people protesting have been looking to raise awareness of racial discrimination, while 40% say it’s a mix of both.

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– By Elena Cox

The CBS News national survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,226 U.S. registered voters interviewed between August 19-21, 2020. The margin of error is ± 2.4 points.

8/26/2020: Republican Convention – Day 3

Most Republican Voters Are Enthusiastic about Mike Pence

Vice President Mike Pence will be speaking at the Republican National Convention tonight, and our recent Battleground Tracker Poll shows that Pence finds favor with most Republican voters nationwide. 56% of Republican voters say they are enthusiastic about Mike Pence’s place on the ticket as the Vice Presidential nominee, and another 35% say they are satisfied. Almost no Republicans express dissatisfaction with Pence.

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While most Republicans across the board are at least satisfied with Mike Pence, some Republicans are more enthusiastic about Pence than others. Three in four Republicans who say they are very conservative are very enthusiastic about Pence, more than Republicans who are only somewhat conservative.

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Another group of Republican voters that Pence finds a lot of support from – and one which tends towards the very conservative wing of the Republican Party – are White evangelicals. 66% of White evangelicals are very enthusiastic about Pence, 10 percentage points higher than Republican voters overall.

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In general, Republican voters who say religion is very important in their daily lives are far more enthusiastic about Mike Pence than those who don’t: 68% are very enthusiastic, compared to less than half of Republican voters who are less so.

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Similarly, Republican voters who attend religious services at least once a week are also more enthusiastic about Mike Pence.

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– by Fred Backus

For the GOP, It’s Still the Economy

At the Republican National Convention this week, the party is reminding voters of what it considers to be President Trump’s pre-COVID economic successes, and our latest Battleground Tracker poll shows Republicans have a rosier view of the economy right now than Democrats do. About two thirds (67%) of Republicans say they would rate the condition of the national economy at least somewhat good, though just 18% say it is very good.

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This is important, because Republicans overwhelmingly say the economy is one of the most important factors in their vote choice. (The economy is important for Democrats too, but not as much as coronavirus, which is playing an outsized role in this election.)

Personal Finances

Part of the reason Republicans say things in the U.S. are better off than they were four years ago is because of the economy (70%) and their own family and finances (64%) In fact, about half of Republicans say they are better off financially than they were four years ago, while a third say things are the same.

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Republicans are more secure about their financial situations than Democrats, with nearly three quarters saying they are at least somewhat confident they would be able to pay their monthly food and housing costs. They are also more likely than Democrats to say they’re able to pay their debts every month, pay for medical bills and have some money left over to save.

While income levels do play a role, the majority of Republicans who say their family makes under $50,000 per year (62%) say they are confident they would be able to cover their food and housing costs. Only 35% of Democrats making under $50,000 say the same.

Looking forward, 57% of Republicans say they want the president to put a high priority on lowering taxes in the next four years, ahead of controlling the coronavirus and health care reform.

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In our Battleground Tracker last month, we saw some evidence that might help explain Republicans’ assessments, in the form of optimism. Republicans were more likely to say any negative economic impact from the coronavirus outbreak was going to be a temporary one. This will be worth following in the coming months to see how assessments bear out.

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– By Elena Cox

The CBS News national survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,226 U.S. registered voters interviewed between August 19-21, 2020. The margin of error is ± 2.4 points.

8/25/2020: Republican Convention – Day 2

Republicans think Trump Has Delivered on His Promises, and Like His Priorities for the Future

Looking back over the first term of Trump’s presidency, Republicans are happy with what they’ve seen. Most Republicans rate the Trump presidency as “excellent”, and eight in 10 think Donald Trump has delivered on most, if not all, of his campaign promises.

Specifically, nearly all Republican voters think Donald Trump has made the country safer from terrorism and the borders more secure, and that manufacturing jobs are returning to the U.S.

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Most also think that “the swamp” is being drained (66%), special interest groups have been stymied (65%), and that they are now safer from criminals and gangs (62%).

More broadly, seven in 10 Republican voters think their culture and way of life are now safer since Donald Trump took office.

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One campaign promise that Donald Trump gets mixed results on is building a border wall with Mexico: while three in 10 Republican voters think most or all of the wall has been built, most say “just some” of the wall has been completed (and even fewer think Mexico has paid for all or most of it). Those who say just some of the wall has been built give a slightly lower – but still net positive – rating for the Trump presidency so far (50% say it has been excellent, compared to 57% of Republican voters overall). Nevertheless, they largely think Donald Trump shares their policy goals and that he has still made due on most of his campaign promises.

Looking forward, nine in 10 Republican voters say the President is advancing the policy goals they want, and first among these goals is stopping the Democrats’ agenda. Three in four Republican voters think this should be a high priority if Donald Trump is re-elected, more than who prioritize lowering taxes, controlling the coronavirus, or reforming health care.

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– By Fred Backus

The CBS News national survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,226 U.S. registered voters interviewed between August 19-21, 2020. The margin of error is ± 2.4 points.

8/24/2020: Republican Convention – Day 1

The Party of Lincoln is Now Very Much the Party of Trump

As we head into a Republican Convention that will feature the President taking center stage throughout the week, Donald Trump will be addressing a political party that is very much his own. The vast majority of Republicans think Donald Trump exemplifies Republican values and they would prefer Republican candidates who would support his agenda, not be independent from him. In fact, more Republicans say that being a Trump supporter is very important to their political identity than say being a Republican is.

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Few Republican voters now see much daylight between Donald Trump and the Republican Party. Eight in 10 Republican voters see in Donald Trump a personal example of what they see as Republican values.

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Some Republicans go further: 72% consider Donald Trump a good role model for children.

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Republicans express what might be described as a personal connection, as nine in 10 Republican voters think Donald Trump takes on people who deserve it, and nearly as many think he speaks for people like them in a way they can understand and relate to.

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And nearly all Republicans think Donald Trump deserves their loyalty.

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This belief in personal loyalty behind the President extends to how Republican voters view their party leaders in Congress. Seven in 10 say they want to vote for Republican candidates for Congress who do what Trump wants, rather than be independent.

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This sentiment marks a turnaround from four years ago when Donald Trump first accepted his party’s nomination. Just before the Republican convention in July 2016, a CBS News Poll found that 53% of Republican registered voters felt that Republican leaders in Congress should have more influence over the direction of the Republican Party than Donald Trump (33%). Back then, most Republican voters were satisfied with Trump as the nominee, but few (24%) were excited.

– by Fred Backus

The CBS News national survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,226 U.S. registered voters interviewed between August 19-21, 2020. The margin of error is ± 2.4 points.

8/23/20

Battleground Tracker poll:

Republicans see U.S. as better off now than 4 years ago ahead of convention

It was mostly Democrats who watched last week’s convention, and they liked what they saw. Now, as the Republicans begin theirs, we find a Republican Party whose voters not only hold a different view of things in America than Democrats do — but also one very different from most voters overall. And therein may lie Republicans’ own challenge.

Republicans see an America — to borrow Ronald Reagan’s famous test — better off today than it was four years ago, mainly, they say, because of their confidence in President Trump.

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Democrats react to their convention, Biden keeps same lead

Meanwhile, the Democrats’ convention — which was watched mostly by Democrats — appears to have solidified Biden’s existing support, and those who watched said it made them feel more positively.

More from the poll here.

8/20/2020 Democratic Convention – Day 4

Most Americans Want More Funding for the Post Office to Handle Mail-In Ballots

As postmaster general Louis DeJoy halts his proposed cost-cutting changes to the United States Postal Service until after Election Day, most Americans say that the USPS should be getting more funding in order to handle mail-in voting this year. And amidst reports of recent slow downs in service due to the measures, nearly half of Americans say they rely a lot on mail and deliveries from the U.S. Postal Service in their daily lives.

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Majorities across demographic groups feel this way, though there are partisan differences. Nearly all Democrats and most independents think more funding should be allocated, but few Republicans agree. Most Republicans think the U.S. Postal Service should get the same amount of funding it has always gotten.

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Given past voting history, this partisan split may not be surprising. Our most recent CBS News Battleground Tracker poll shows that 26% of Democratic registered voters say they have usually voted by mail in the past, compared to 15% of Republican voters. Looking ahead to this year, 37% of registered voters say they would prefer to vote by mail for the presidential election. Of those who would prefer to vote this way, 78% plan on voting for Joe Biden.

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Despite the many new ways technology has afforded people to communicate, the vast majority of Americans say they still rely on the U.S. Postal Service. Eight in 10 rely on the service at least somewhat, and 45% say they rely on it a lot.

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Here there is less political division. Large majorities of Democrats and Republicans alike say they rely on the U.S. Postal Service, and Democrats (50%) are only a little bit more likely than Republicans (40%) to say they rely on it a lot. Women (52%) are more likely than men (38%) to say they rely on the U.S. Postal Service a lot, and older Americans are far more likely to rely on it a lot than younger Americans.

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– Fred Backus

The CBS News survey is conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,000 U.S. citizens interviewed online between August 13-15, 2020 and a CBS News survey conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,210 U.S. registered voters interviewed online between August 12-14, 2020.

8/19/2020 Democratic Convention – Day 3

Barack Obama: Highly rated and in high demand

Former President Barack Obama will speak at the convention tonight and Democrats are looking forward to hearing from him.

Heading into the convention, far more Democrats wanted to hear from President Obama than another recent Democratic president, Bill Clinton, who spoke last night. Across demographic groups within Democratic voters, roughly 90% want to hear from Mr. Obama.

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Looking back, nine in 10 Democrats rate the Obama presidency positively, including 59% who say it was “excellent.”

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Both White and Black Democrats rate Obama’s presidency highly, but three in four Black Democrats rate it as “excellent” compared to 55% of White Democrats who do.

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While most Democrats express strong support for nominee Joe Biden, this is especially so among those Democrats who rate the Obama presidency as excellent- nearly all of them (92%) say their support is “very strong – I’ve decided” – higher than the number who rate it as good (79%). Very few in either group say they would consider voting for President Trump.

Biden’s association with former President Obama was an asset during the primaries. Last summer, ahead of the nominating contests, 86% of Democrats in the early primary states who were considering backing Biden cited his time as Vice President with Barack Obama as a reason – far ahead of his policy stances (57%) or his time in the U.S. Senate (54%).

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Biden was helped by his connection to Mr. Obama in another way. The Democratic primary electorate was more inclined to prefer a return to President Obama’s policies than a move toward more liberal policies, and Biden won a majority of those Democratic voters who were seeking a return to Obama era policies. – by Jennifer De Pinto

This analysis is based on a CBS News survey conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,210 U.S. registered voters interviewed between August 12-14, 2020. Additional sources: CBS News Battleground Tracker, May 31-June 12, 2019, 2020 CBS News primary exit polls.

CBS News Battleground Tracker- August 12-14, 2020

Registered Voters

Sample 2,210 Registered Voters

Margin of Error _2.4%

Looking back on it now, how would you rate Barack Obama’s presidency? Was it…

Among Democrats

Excellent ………………………………………………………………….. 59%

Good ………………………………………………………………………..31%

Fair ………………………………………………………………………….. 7%

Poor …………………………………………………………………………. 2%

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A Look at Black Voters Nationally, and Within the Democratic Party

Our recent nationwide Battleground Tracker Poll fielded just before the Democratic Convention shows that 90% of Black likely voters nationwide plan to cast their ballot for Joe Biden. In this, Biden is doing better among Black voters than Hillary Clinton did at this point in the campaign four years ago. In a July 2016 poll taken before both parties’ nominating conventions (which occurred earlier in the summer that year), CBS News polling showed Hillary Clinton with the support of 72% of Black voters (Clinton ultimately won 89% of Black voters nationally).

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The solid support of Black voters will be crucial for the Democrats’ chances of winning many of the key battleground states that President Trump won in 2016, and Biden is getting that at the moment. Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio are all states that Trump won four years ago, but this year are “toss ups” right now in the CBS News Battleground Tracker Model. Black voters made up between 14% and 30% of the vote in these states in 2016, and recent polling in these states show Biden with a huge lead among this group. And in each of these states, Biden is trailing Donald Trump among White voters by double digits.

How Black Voters View Joe Biden

Four in 10 Black voters who are voting for Biden say they are doing so because they like Joe Biden, far more than what we’re seeing among White voters, who mostly say they’re voting for Biden to oppose Donald Trump.

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Black and White Democratic Voters both largely like the way Joe Biden handles himself. They also see Biden as honest and authentic in equal proportion, and they view him similarly in terms of being knowledgeable and presidential as well. But Black Democratic voters are far more likely than White Democrats to see Biden as inspiring. 82% do, compared to 63% of White Democratic Voters.

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And most Black Democratic voters find Biden to be an exciting candidate, compared to fewer than half of White Democrats.

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The Harris Pick

Though Biden’s selection of Kamala Harris as his running mate finds favor from most Democrats across the board, Black Democratic voters are even more likely to be happy about the choice, and are even more enthusiastic about her place on the ticket.

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Like most White Democrats, Most Black Democratic voters think having Harris on the ticket will make it easier for Biden to win in November.

Are Black Voters Taken for Granted?

Although Black voters are, once again, supporting the Democratic nominee in large numbers this year, many Black voters think the Democratic Party today does not pay enough attention to the needs and concerns of Black people. 46% say they do, but another 46% say the Democratic Party pays too little attention to their needs. But they give the Democratic Party much higher marks than the Republican Party in that regard: eight in 10 Black voters think the Republican Party pays too little attention to the needs of Black people.

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Though many Black voters may think the Democrats should pay more attention to their needs, most Black Democrats don’t feel the Democratic Party takes their vote for granted. More than three in four Black Democrats think their party’s candidates try to earn their vote.

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Views on Discrimination and the Black Lives Matters Movement

85% of Black voters say race relations will play a major factor in their presidential vote this year, placing it right behind the economy (87%) and the coronavirus (86%) in terms of importance. In contrast, 54% of White voters say race relations will play a major factor in their vote this year.

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Overall, Black and White voters see discrimination in America differently. Eight in 10 Black voters think there is a a lot of discrimination against Black people today. Though most White voters say there is at least some discrimination against Black people, just four in 10 say there is a lot.

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Over half of White voters say there is also some discrimination against White people in the U.S. Just a quarter of Black voters agree.

And while most White voters say there has been too much attention being paid to issues of discrimination today, most Black voters say there hasn’t been enough.

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Nearly all Black voters agree with the ideas expressed by the Black Lives Matters movement, while fewer than half of White voters do. While support for the movement has remained strong among Black voters, support among White voters has slipped, from 52% at the end of June to 45% today.

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Even among Democrats, Black voters show more solidarity with the ideas behind the Black Lives Matters Movement. While most white Democrats say they agree with the ideas of BLM, fewer than half do so strongly (those who do tend to be younger and very liberal). In contrast, 70% of Black Democrats strongly agree with the ideas of the movement.

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– by Fred Backus

Source: This analysis is based on a CBS News survey conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,210 U.S. registered voters interviewed between August 12-14, 2020.

8/18/2020 Democratic Convention – Day 2

Hispanic Voters Largely Support Biden As Coronavirus Becomes A Top Issue in 2020 Race

Hispanic voters are backing Joe Biden ahead of the Democratic Convention at levels near or exceeding those Democrats got in 2016, and Biden’s support — particularly in key battleground states — is bolstered by the view that he cares more about the risk of coronavirus to their communities. Nationally, more than two-thirds (71%) of Hispanic voters say they intend to vote for the former vice president in November.

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In Texas and Florida, Joe Biden currently has about the same level of support as Hillary Clinton did in the 2016 election. In Arizona, Biden’s current support is a bit higher than Clinton’s was in 2016, which could give Biden an edge in the battleground state.

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Hispanics express more concern than voters overall about contracting coronavirus and are more likely to cite the current outbreak as a major factor in their vote decision.

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The majority of Hispanic voters in these states say the president is doing a bad job handling the crisis, and most say he doesn’t care about their coronavirus risk. Conversely, nearly three quarters of Hispanics say Biden at least somewhat cares about their risk. In both cases, Hispanics fall between White voters, who are more likely to support the president’s response, and Black voters, who are more critical.

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Like other voters in these states, Hispanics in Florida, Texas and Arizona all rank health care and the economy as major factors in deciding their votes. These issues are ahead of others including immigration, recent protests and gun policy in terms of importance.

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Nationally, Hispanics are slightly more likely than White Americans to say they are worse off financially than they were four years ago. About a third (33%) say their change in personal finances is worse, while 40% say things remain the same. They are also concerned about their future finances, and are more likely than other racial groups to say they are “very concerned” about losing their jobs or getting a pay cut in the next few months.

And we see an empathy gap on economics, with Hispanics saying Biden cares more about their economic situation than Trump.

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In Texas and Florida, Hispanics are more likely to say they are voting for Biden to oppose Donald Trump, not necessarily because they like him. That’s similar to what we’re seeing with White voters nationally. Only in Arizona do more Hispanic voters (42%) say they support Joe Biden because they like him.

When it comes to President Trump, about two thirds of Hispanic voters in these states say he works against them.

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But while more Hispanics think Biden would favor them rather than work against them, many think he would be neutral. – by Elena Cox

Source: This analysis is based on a CBS News survey conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,210 U.S. registered voters interviewed between August 12-14, 2020 as well as CBS News exit polls and primary polls conducted during the 2020 primaries.

State surveys were conducted on behalf of CBS News by YouGov between July 7-10, 2020. They are based on representative samples of 1,099 registered voters in Arizona, 1,229 in Florida and 1,212 in Texas. Margins of error for registered voters: Arizona +/- 3.8 points, Florida +/- 3.5 points, Texas +/- 3.3 points.

8/18/2020 Democratic Convention – Day 2

ELECTION 2020: WHERE DO WOMEN VOTERS STAND?

As the country marks 100 years since women got the right to vote, their votes will be pivotal in this year’s presidential election.

Historically, women are pretty reliable Democratic voters in presidential elections. In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by 13 points among women nationally. Men backed Trump by 11 points representing the largest gender gap since 1972 when exit polls were first conducted.

The last time women voted for a Republican for president was in 1988 when George Bush beat Michael Dukakis, women only backed Bush by 1 pt.

But winning a majority of women alone doesn’t win you the presidency. As we’ve seen in past elections, vote preferences within women can differ, particularly by race and education.

Biden leads with women overall, but he will need to make gains with some types of women voters, including some who have been trending Republican in recent presidential elections in order to win the White House, and Trump will at least need to maintain his standing with these groups.

Gender Gap: Women for Biden, Men split nationally with edge to Trump in battlegrounds

Biden is currently ahead of Trump among women nationwide and in nine battleground states where CBS News has conducted polling. Men split nationally, while Trump has the edge with men in key battlegrounds.

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Biden gains with white women, college graduates, Black women strongly behind him

Trump won white women by nine points nationally in 2016 – a group that has voted Republican in presidential elections since 2000. Biden trails Trump among white women nationally but he is making inroads with this group, particularly with white women who have college degrees.

In the battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Biden currently has the edge with white women voters. Clinton won this group (just narrowly) in Wisconsin, but lost them in Michigan and Pennsylvania four years ago. Biden trails Trump among white women in six other battlegrounds, but has mostly improved on Clinton’s margins from 2016.

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Biden also leads Trump among suburban women by 57% to 39%, a group the President has been targeting lately.

Many of Biden’s gains come from white women with college degrees. He leads with this group nationally in seven of the nine battleground states CBS News has polled. For instance, in Pennsylvania, Clinton and Trump tied among white women college graduates, but Biden currently leads Trump by 20 points among them. And in Florida, Biden has a 23-point advantage with this group; Clinton lost them by that much in 2016 in that state.

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White women who are not college graduates supported Trump in 2016, and most are backing him now. So far, Biden has not moved the needle that much among this group.

Black women, who were crucial to Biden’s primary victories, are backing him in large numbers. 93% say they are voting for Biden, while 4% are backing Trump.

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Women particularly concerned about coronavirus, say Biden will handle better

Women are more concerned about the coronavirus than men are, and they are more likely to think Biden will do a better job than Trump handling the outbreak, although men give Biden the edge on this too. Eight in 10 women who are very concerned about the coronavirus are backing Biden.

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The most important qualities women are looking for in a candidate is someone knowledgeable and someone honest and on both of these, more women think Biden possesses these qualities than Trump.

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  • Women like the Harris pick

Women are happier about Biden’s choice of Harris then men are: by two to one, women are glad Biden picked Harris rather than someone else. Black women (who mostly identify as Democrats) are particularly happy – 62% are.

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While many women are happy about the pick of Harris, there is an enthusiasm gap with regard to voting between those backing Biden and those voting for Trump. 74% of women backing Trump are very enthusiastic about voting, compared to 60% of women voting for Biden. – by Jennifer De Pinto

This analysis is based on CBS News surveys conducted by YouGov nationally and in battleground states.

8/17/2020 Democratic Convention – Day 1

Bernie Sanders: From Biden rival to supporter

In Sen. Bernie Sanders’ second bid for the presidency, he repeated his strong support among young voters, and had some success in moving the Democratic party toward some of his more progressive ideas. In the end, it was a candidate who could beat President Trump that Democratic primary voters were looking for, and for them, Joe Biden fit the bill. And the more liberal wing of the Democratic party that backed Sanders during the primaries appears to be coalescing behind the presumptive nominee.

  • Two in three Democrats say Biden agrees with Sanders the right amount

Sanders endorsed Biden soon after exiting the race, and most Democrats say Biden has struck the right balance in his agreement with Sanders’ ideas. Outside the Democratic Party, independents’ views are more mixed, with nearly half (47%) saying Biden agrees too much with Sanders’ ideas — and those independents are backing Trump. The independents who don’t hold this view are voting for Biden.

And perhaps not surprisingly, a majority of Republicans say Biden agrees with Sanders too much, as Trump attempts to paint Biden as being a tool of the “radical left”.

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  • Biden winning over Sanders voter groups: the young and the very liberal

There are about half of voters who identify as “very liberal” who don’t think Biden has embraced Sanders’ ideas enough, but these voters are overwhelmingly backing Biden over Trump and are as likely as other Biden voters to say they’ll vote this year, even if they are doing so mostly to oppose Trump. Overall, nine in 10 of very liberal voters say they are voting for Biden; similar to the level of support Biden is getting from voters who call themselves “somewhat liberal”.

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While Biden struggled to penetrate Sanders’ support with young voters during the primaries (Sanders won them in every state where exit polls were conducted), 62% of voters under 30 nationwide are currently backing him, higher than the percentage that backed Hillary Clinton in 2016. Clinton’s share of the youth vote in key battleground states she lost fell short of Barack Obama’s share in his presidential bids.

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Heading into the convention, two-thirds of Democrats nationwide want to hear Sanders speak at the Democratic convention; this is particularly the case among “very liberal” and younger voters.

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Sanders’ signature issue of his campaign was his support of a Medicare-for-all health care system and while Biden hasn’t fully embraced that idea (his plan builds on Obamacare providing a new public option),health remains a dominant issue for voters, particularly among Democrats. – by Jennifer De Pinto

The Covid Factor: Democrats Seize the Issue

As the Democrats set up for their first ever remote national convention, the issue at the heart of why the convention is being held remotely – namely the coronavirus outbreak in the United States – is one that finds particular resonance with Democratic voters. Nearly nine in 10 Democratic registered voters say the coronavirus outbreak will be a major factor in their vote come November, more than independents, and almost twice as many as the 45% of Republicans who say it weighs as heavily in their vote choice.

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In this, Democrats are more reflective of voters overall than Republicans. Most voters nationally, as well as in many of the key battleground states, also say the coronavirus is a major factor in their vote. And nationally, as well as in these key battleground states, most voters think things are going badly for the U.S. in its efforts to confront the coronavirus outbreak. Voters who think so are voting overwhelmingly for Joe Biden.

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  • From the start of the outbreak, Democratic voters have shown more concern about the coronavirus than Republicans

Since the coronavirus outbreak shut down large sectors of the U.S. economy back in March, Democratic voters have taken the outbreak very seriously – considerably more seriously than most Republicans. Moreover, while concern among Democrats has risen since the outbreak began, concern among Republicans has dropped. In March, 45% of Democratic voters said they were very concerned that they or a close family member would contract the virus; that percentage is up to 54% today. While few Republicans said they were very concerned back when the outbreak began in March, 63% said they were at least somewhat concerned. Now just half of Republican voters are even somewhat concerned, and only one in five say they are very concerned.

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Democrats are also more concerned about the potential economic hit they may personally take as a result of the outbreak than Republicans. More than a quarter of Democratic voters are very concerned that they or someone in their household may lose their job or have a major reduction in paid work as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, and more than half are at least somewhat concerned. In contrast, just one in 10 Republican voters are very concerned, and most say they are either not very or not at all concerned.

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So why are Democratic voters so much more concerned about the coronavirus than Republican voters? Democrats (44%) are twice as likely to report many cases of coronavirus in their communities than Republicans (22%), and some of this may be due to the demographic breakdown of the two parties. The CDC reports that Covid-19 is affecting communities of color in the United States in a greater proportion than white Americans. In the latest CBS News Battleground Tracker poll, 46% of Democratic registered voters identified themselves as people of color, compared to just 11% of Republican registered voters. In terms of economics, Democrats also have a higher proportion of lower income voters, making them potentially more at risk to the economic consequences of the outbreak.

  • One’s political views may be shaping how one views the virus to a greater extent than the virus is shaping one’s political views.

For instance, though Democratic voters are far more likely to say there have been many cases of coronavirus in their communities than Republicans, they do so regardless of what type of community they live in, and regardless of what region of the country they reside in. Whether they reside in the Northeast – which saw the initial surge of cases in early Spring – or in the South – where cases are spiking today – about twice as many Democratic voters than Republican voters report many cases of the virus in their communities.

The same holds true in terms of what type of community they live in. The coronavirus began by ravaging urban centers in the spring, and has since moved to more suburban and rural settings as it has progressed. Nevertheless, Democratic voters are more likely than Republican voters to report large numbers of coronavirus cases in the communities whether they live in cities, the suburbs, or small towns. Similarly Democrats report more cases of coronavirus in their communities, and higher levels of concern than Republicans across all income levels.

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In other words, Democrats and Republicans are seeing the effects of the coronavirus outbreak through different lenses, and their levels of concern remain strikingly different, even while, in many cases, living in the same types of communities in the same regions of the country.

  • Democrats and Republicans are getting their information from different sources.

Back in May we asked who Democrats and Republicans trusted to give them accurate information about the virus, and they differed widely on many of their potential sources. A large majority of Democrats, for instance, said they trusted the national media to give them accurate information about the coronavirus, while the news media was trusted by just one in five Republicans. And while more than eight in 10 Republican voters said they trusted President Trump in this regard, fewer than one in 10 Democrats said they trusted him.

  • Democrats are more reflective of most Voters than Republicans when it comes to the Coronavirus Outbreak

The result of this disconnect is to put Republicans at odds with the majority of Americans on this issue, an issue which the Democrats are likely to make a central issue this week in making the case to unseat President Trump in November. Like Democrats, most voters nationwide are concerned that they or a family member could get the virus, most think things are going badly in the U.S. efforts to deal with the outbreak, and most voters are not happy with the current administration’s response: six in 10 registered voters think the Trump administration could be doing more to fight the coronavirus, and only a quarter of voters – mostly Republicans – think the Trump administration’s policies have helped their own state try to contain the outbreak. 41% think the Trump administration has hurt their state’s efforts.

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And as September looms, just a quarter of voters want schools to reopen with children returning to full classes as normal,and most voters think the Trump administration is pressuring schools to reopen, rather than allow state and local school boards to set their own timelines.

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More importantly, criticism over how the President is handling this issue can be seen in a number of the battleground states that are crucial for a victory in November. The CBS News Battleground Tracker polls have found that majorities of voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas,, and Wisconsin all give President Trump poor marks for handling the coronavirus outbreak.

The result is that voters nationwide think Joe Biden would do a better job handling the coronavirus outbreak than Donald Trump.

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– by Fred Backus

This analysis is based on a CBS News survey conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,210 U.S. registered voters interviewed between August 12-14, 2020 as well as CBS News exit polls and primary polls conducted during the 2020 primaries.

8/16/20

Battleground Tracker poll: Biden solidifies Democratic base support ahead of convention

Helped by a party that seems unified behind him, Joe Biden leads in our current estimate of the Electoral College — the only count that will matter — as his nominating convention begins. The CBS News Battleground Tracker model has Biden up in states worth 279 electoral votes, slightly more than the 270 needed to win in November. To be clear, that doesn’t mean Biden will win. This is now.

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The electoral map has expanded this summer. Multiple Southern states previously in the Republican column now look to be in play, like Arizona, Georgia, and even Texas. Biden currently leads in the three upper-Midwest states that President Trump narrowly flipped in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

All that opens up multiple paths for Biden to reach 270, as we have seen widespread movement toward him, rather than shifts in just a few states. We estimate that states worth 96 electoral votes are toss-ups, including others that Mr, Trump won, like Iowa and Ohio. However, states currently leaning toward Biden could go back to toss-up status or even lean Republican if the race changes down the road.

More here.

Democrats happy with Harris pick and Biden holds lead ahead of convention

And we find Biden’s vice presidential pick of Kamala Harris is exciting to his Democratic base. Democrats say they’re glad he picked Harris and, asked to play political consultant for a moment, feel Harris also improves the ticket’s chances of winning.

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More here.

8/9/2020

Biden leads in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania due to COVID concerns, country’s direction — Battleground Tracker poll

Late on election night 2016, it was Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that put Donald Trump over the top and into the White House, thanks to late-deciding voters who went his way, and big margins among people who wanted change.

Today, the vast majority of voters in these two states say things in the U.S. are going badly. They think Joe Biden would do a better job of handling coronavirus by significant margins, washing out any edge Mr. Trump has on the economy. And looking back now, relatively few voters in these states say the Trump presidency has been going as they expected — more say it’s gone worse than gone better.

And so Biden leads both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin today by six points in each. He’s cutting into Mr. Trump’s margins with the White, non-college voters who’ve been a key part of the Trump base. He’s leading among independents — a group that went for Mr. Trump last time — and even peeling off a few Republicans who think things in the U.S. aren’t going well.

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More from the poll here.

More from the Battleground Tracker…

Do voters view Biden and Trump as moderate or extreme?

One of the Trump campaign’s main attack lines portrays Joe Biden as a puppet of the radical left and stokes fears of socialism. Is this messaging resonating with voters, and conversely, how extreme or moderate do voters think President Trump is? More here: www.cbsnews.com/news/do-voters-view-biden-and-trump-as-moderate-or-extreme-opinion-poll/

8/2/20

Biden has edge in North Carolina and race is tight in Georgia — CBS News Battleground Tracker poll

It’s another two states and another two competitive contests, as concern about President Trump’s handling of coronavirus continues to take a political toll on him.

Together, North Carolina and Georgia add to our picture of an expanded electoral map. Biden is up four points in North Carolina, where Democrats haven’t won a presidential race since 2008. Biden is up one in Georgia, and the last time a Democrat won there, Athens’ hometown band R.E.M. had just released its 1992 classic “Automatic for the People.” The race today is so close, winning will be anything but automatic — for either side.

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More from the poll here.

7/30/2020

More from our Battleground Tracker:

Republicans growing more concerned about coronavirus, could that weigh on Trump?

Since the coronavirus began spreading in the U.S., Republicans have shown the least amount of concern about the outbreak. But according to our latest Battleground Tracker poll, 38% now say things are going at least “somewhat badly,” up from 31% in June and the most pessimistic Republicans have been since we began asking this question in March.

While the number of Democrats and Independents who think things are going badly has also increased over time, Republicans reported the biggest month-to-month jump from June to July.

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Meanwhile, 3 in 5 Republicans now say they are at least “somewhat concerned” about getting infected, up from a little more than half in June. That number remained little changed for Independents (68% vs. 66%) and for Democrats — a large majority who have long been concerned about the virus — 87% are at least somewhat concerned, a dip from 91% in June.

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While most Republicans continue to think President Trump is doing a good job handling the coronavirus outbreak, some may be cooling on his response. Fewer Republicans say the president is doing a “very good” job compared to last month.

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As we’ve seen throughout our CBS News polling, Trump voters are far less likely to be concerned about COVID overall. However, nearly 1 in 5 who believe the virus efforts are going badly say they may consider voting for Joe Biden in November. – by Elena Cox

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This CBS News survey was conducted among a nationally representative sample of 2,008 U.S. adult residents. The margin of error for U.S. adults is 2.5 pts.

7/28/20

More from the Battleground Tracker…

Even if Schools Re-Open, Many Parents Would Keep Their Children Home

Almost Half Say Child Care Would be Difficult if Schools Stay Closed

As reported in the latest CBS News Battleground Tracker Poll, just one in five Americans wants schools to reopen to full classrooms in the fall, and even if their local schools were to reopen, most parents would be cautious. Just a third of parents of school-aged children would categorically send their children back to the classroom. Instead, 37% say “it depends”, and another 31% would keep their children home. Weighing on the decision for parents is widespread concern about contracting the coronavirus, but also worries about the difficulties of providing child care if schools don’t reopen, particularly among working parents. And politics looms over how Americans view this issue as well.

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Concerns about safety seem to be foremost on the minds of parents when making the decision about whether they would send their children back to school if they reopened in the fall.

Parents of school-aged children tend to be more concerned than Americans overall that they or a close member of their family will contract the coronavirus: 47% of parents are very concerned, compared with 35% of Americans overall.

Just 21% of parents who are very concerned say they would send their children to school in the fall, compared to over half of parents who are either not very or not at all concerned. Like the vast majority of Americans overall, three in four parents of school-aged children believe children can both contract the coronavirus and spread it to other people. Most who feel this way want schools in their area to remain closed.

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Child care seems to be another factor that parents are considering when deciding what to do about their children’s education in the fall. Nearly half of parents across the country say providing child care for the children would be difficult for them if schools in their area were to remain closed. This cuts across income levels.

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Those who would have more difficulty providing child-care are more likely to send their children back to school if the schools do reopen. 23% of parents who would have difficulty providing child care would keep their children home if school reopened, but this percentage rises to 37% among those for whom providing child care would not prove difficult.

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And this pattern holds true even among parents who are concerned that they or their family will contract the coronavirus. Among parents at least somewhat concerned about the coronavirus, just over a quarter (27%) who say child-care would be difficult for them plan to keep their children home, compared to nearly half of those for whom child care would not pose a difficulty (47%).

Working parents are more likely than non-working parents to say providing child care would be difficult, and they are also more likely to plan on sending their kids to school if they are open, particularly those who can’t work remotely from home. While just 23% of non-working parents would send their children back to school, this rises to 36% of parents who work from home, and 42% of parents who work outside the home.

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But as with many other issues, politics remains a factor in how Americans view the issue of whether to reopen schools in the fall. Republicans are far more likely than Democrats or independents to both want schools to reopen and to send their school-aged children if schools did reopen in their local areas. Nevertheless, skepticism remains even among Republicans. While most Republicans want some form of reopening, most do not want schools to reopen normally to full classrooms.

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And while nearly half of Republican parents would send their school-aged children if schools were open, more either would either keep their children home or say it would depend.

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Most Americans feel the Trump Administration is pressuring schools to reopen, rather than allowing states and local school boards to set their own timelines. This is particularly true of those who want schools to remain closed: two-thirds of Americans feel this way, rising to 76% who think there should be only at-home or remote learning. Majorities of Democrats and independents feel this way, as do 42% of Republicans.

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This perception may have implications on the presidential race, as President Trump is seen by parents as less concerned about the risk that the coronavirus poses to children like their own. While 63% of parents think Joe Biden cares at least somewhat, fewer than half say the same for Donald Trump.

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– by Fred Backus

This CBS News survey was conducted among a nationally representative sample of 2,008 U.S. adult residents. The margin of error for U.S. adults is 2.5 pts.

7/27/2020

More from our CBS News Battleground Tracker…

Who should Biden pick as a running mate?

When it comes to Joe Biden’s vice-presidential running mate this year, voters across the country are decidedly mixed about the type of person they want him to pick.

Registered voters nationwide express a slight preference for someone who is considered to be moderate (37%) to someone who is considered liberal or progressive (28%). However, another third say it doesn’t personally matter to them. Among Democrats, there’s more of an appetite for a liberal or progressive pick, but even among them, a quarter don’t express a preference.

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Biden has committed to picking a female running mate and has said several women of color are under consideration. When it comes to race, however, about three quarters say it doesn’t matter to them whether Biden picks someone of color or someone white.

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Here again, Democrats are the exception: while most say it doesn’t matter, those with opinions are four times more likely to say they prefer someone of color to a White candidate, with about a quarter of Democrats preferring a Black running mate. In general, non-white voters are likelier than White voters to express a preference for a non-white candidate. — by Kabir Khanna

Who’d get a vaccine, if there was one?

The world is hoping for an effective coronavirus vaccine soon, but if one became available, many Americans would approach it cautiously. If one came out this year at no cost, only 30% of Americans say they would get one “as soon as possible.” Many more, half of the country, say they would consider it, but first “wait to see” what happened to others. And 20 percent say they’d “never” get it.

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There isn’t that much difference by age in these responses, despite the health statistics showing older adults at more risk. Only 27% of Americans over age 65 would get one right away, and just 35% of younger adults under 30 would join them.

Some of this is related to how risky people think the virus is in the first place. Those very concerned about getting the virus themselves are the most likely people to say they’d get a vaccine immediately; but even then, fewer than half of them would (41%). And of those not at all concerned about getting the virus, 60% say they’d “never get” a vaccine.

As with many views related to the virus, some of this is connected to political ideology. Liberals are relatively more likely to say they’d get one immediately (45%) than are conservatives (20%.) A third of conservatives say they’d never get one. And throughout the outbreak, conservatives have said they’re less worried about getting the virus. – by Anthony Salvanto

This CBS News survey was conducted among a nationally representative sample of 2,008 U.S. adult residents. The margin of error for U.S. adults is 2.5 pts.

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7/26/2020

CBS News Battleground Tracker poll: Trump up one in Ohio as Biden leads Michigan

CBS News’ latest survey finds glaring divisions over the matters shaping the nation’s cultural and race relations and public health, all of which are strongly tied to voting.

Some elections are just about “the economy,” but despite the downturn, 2020 is about much more; there’s just too much else happening. And while there’s no big edge for either President Trump or former Vice-President Joe Biden on who’d revive the nation’s economic fortunes, we do see glaring divisions over the matters shaping the nation’s cultural and race relations and public health, all of which are strongly tied to vote, and which – as of now – accrue to Joe Biden’s advantage. Read the full poll here.

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7/20/2020

From the latest CBS News Battleground Tracker: A closer look at vote by mail and the voting process

About elections, it is often said that “it all comes down to turnout,” and this year, that may be the case even more so. With the coronavirus pandemic there may be challenges to voting in person and many states are considering making mail voting more available.

In the battleground states of Arizona, Florida and Texas, more voters would like to see voting by mail made easier than harder and more say they prefer to vote that way than report having voted by mail in the past. The degree of difficulty in the voting process could have an impact on voter participation. Democrats want voting by mail made easier and tend to want to vote that way, while Republicans prefer to vote in person and generally find it easier to vote.

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And the coronavirus pandemic is playing a role. Across these states, the more concerned one is about contracting the virus, the more likely they are to say voting by mail should be made easier and are inclined to want to vote that way. Some of this is tied to partisanship as Democrats are more concerned about coronavirus than Republicans are. But Republicans who are at least somewhat concerned about the virus are more likely than those who are not to say they prefer to vote by mail or absentee this year.

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In these states, Republicans tend to prefer their state not change the way it handles mail voting, but few want to see the voting by mail process actually made harder than it is now. In Florida, just 20% of Republicans hold that view.

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There is some indication as to what voting during a pandemic might be like. During recent primary elections, some voters experienced long lines at the polls as fewer polling locations were open, particularly in urban areas which are more densely populated. Our poll finds that more of those living in cities (groups that have historically trended Democratic) and the suburbs (which are usually competitive) would like to see voting by mail made easier, compared to voters in rural areas (which tend to vote Republican).

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How one prefers to vote this year varies some across these states. A majority of voters in Arizona (64%) prefer to vote by mail or absentee ballot and more than four in ten prefer to do so in Florida (43%). Currently, it is relatively easier to vote by mail in these states than it is in Texas where a smaller number (29%) say they prefer to vote that way his year. Arizona and Florida have no-excuse absentee voting,whereas in Texas, an excuse is needed in order to cast a ballot before election day.

There could potentially be more mail voters in these states than we’ve seen in past elections. In each, the percentage who prefer to vote by mail this year is higher than the percentage who report they have usually voted that way in the past.

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Regardless of how many want to vote by mail in these states, the pattern is similar in each: Democrats and Biden voters are more likely than Republicans and Trump voters to say they want to vote that way. If they could choose, few Florida Democrats – just 14% – would prefer to vote in person on Election Day.

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Voters tend to prefer using the same voting method this year as they usually do, but some would like to move from in-person to voting by mail or absentee. About a quarter of voters in these states who say they usually vote in person (whether early or on election day) would prefer to vote by mail this year when asked to choose.

Those who prefer to make that switch – from voting in-person to voting by mail- are more likely to identify as Democrats than Republicans. These voters are more concerned about contracting the coronavirus than those who have usually voted in person and would like to do so again this year.

Among Republicans who say they usually vote by mail, most report they would like to do so again. In Arizona and Florida, slightly more than one in 10 of Republicans who usually vote by mail would like to vote in person this time — higher than the number of Democrats who may switch from vote by mail to in person.

Beyond mail voting, some voter groups, more than others, view the process of voting in general as easier. Few say the voting process in their state is outright hard, but Democrats, younger voters and Black and Hispanic voters are far less likely to say it’s “very easy” to vote compared to Republicans, older voters (who have probably been voting for a longer time than younger voters) and White voters.

More habitual voters – those who say they “always” vote – find the voting process easier than those who report voting less often. — by Jennifer De Pinto

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These surveyswere conducted on behalf of CBS News by YouGov between July 7-10, 2020. They are based on representative samples of 1,099 registered voters in Arizona, 1,229 in Florida and 1,212 in Texas. Margins of error for registered voters: Arizona +/- 3.8 points, Florida +/- 3.5 points, Texas +/- 3.3 points.

7/15/20

Arizona, Florida, and Texas:

Many voters Critical of How Their Governor is Handling the Coronavirus Outbreak

As shown in the CBS News 2020 Battleground Tracker poll released Sunday, a majority of voters in three battleground states that recently witnessed a large uptick in coronavirus cases – Arizona, Florida, and Texas – think things are going badly in their state’s efforts to deal with the outbreak. Most who think their state moved too quickly think it was due to pressure from the Trump administration. But while the Trump administration gets its share of the blame for handling the crisis, the Republican governors of each of these states don’t escape blame themselves. In Texas, views of how Governor Abbott are handling the outbreak are split, while most voters in Florida and Arizona give Governors DeSantis and Ducey negative ratings. Arizona voters are particularly negative about their governor’s handling of the outbreak.

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In Texas and Florida, voters give their governors slightly better marks than President Trump when it comes with dealing with the coronavirus, while Arizona voters give President Trump higher marks than Governor Ducey – though both are viewed negatively.

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Democrats in all three states give their Republican governors low marks (though not as low as they give President Trump). Republicans generally approve of the job their Republican governors are doing (though they approve of President Trump’s handling even more). Governor Ducey, however, gets lower positive ratings among Republicans (61%) than either Governors Abbott (74%) and DeSantis (77%) in Texas and Florida do, which in part is responsible for his lower rating among Arizona voters overall. Republicans in Arizona are more critical of how their state has handled the crisis than in either Florida or Texas: in the latter two states most Republicans think things are going well, while Republicans in Arizona are split.

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– Fred Backus

These surveys were conducted on behalf of CBS News by YouGov between July 7-10, 2020. They are based on representative samples of 1,099 registered voters in Arizona, 1,229 in Florida and 1,212 in Texas. Margins of error for registered voters: Arizona +/- 3.8 points, Florida +/- 3.5 points, Texas +/- 3.3 points.

7/14/2020

CBS News Battleground Tracker Poll

Senate Race in Texas: Republican Cornyn leads potential Democratic challengers

Texas will hold a Democratic primary run-off today and the results will decide who will face incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn in November. The race is between Mary “MJ” Hegar, an Air Force veteran, and Royce West, a member of the Texas State Senate.

Cornyn currently leads both potential Democratic challengers.

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There are four months until Election Day and with a Democratic candidate not yet selected, 15% of likely voters in each match-up are not sure who they will support, so there could be some movement between now and November.

In both head-to-heads, Republican voters have coalesced behind Cornyn, who is seeking a fourth term in the U.S. Senate, and has already been selected as the party’s nominee. Most Democrats are backing their party’s candidates, but with the nomination still up for grabs, slightly more of them are undecided right now or say they may vote for someone else.

As most Democrats and Republicans are getting behind their respective party’s candidates, independents are currently leaning toward Cornyn.

In each of these match-ups, Cornyn leads with men, while women are divided in their vote. Most White voters say they plan to vote for Cornyn and majorities of Black voters are backing the Democrat. Each of the Democratic candidates lead Cornyn among Hispanic voters, but about a quarter are undecided.

At the same time, this poll shows a tight race for President in Texas. President Trump has a one-point edge over Joe Biden. More voters appear to have made up their minds (especially partisans) regarding this race relative to the U.S. Senate race.

The coronavirus and police treatment of racial minorities are issues that are front and center in Texas. As the state experiences a recent spike in coronavirus cases, six in 10 Texas voters think efforts to contain the virus are going badly and most are at least somewhat concerned about getting the virus, including four in 10 who are very concerned.

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And like the rest of the country, there have been a number of Black Lives Matter protests in Texas. More than half of the state’s voters agree with the ideas expressed by Black Lives Matter, while 47% disagree.

On both the coronavirus outbreak and Black Lives Matter, there are divisions by political party similar to those we’ve seen nationally. Most Texas Democrats don’t think the efforts to contain the virus are going well, while Republicans are inclined to think it is. Democrats also express more concern than Republicans about getting the virus.

Most Democrats agree with the ideas expressed by the Black Lives Matter movement, while Texas Republicans disagree.

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-by Jennifer De Pinto

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This survey was conducted on behalf of CBS News by YouGov with a representative sample of 1,212 registered in Texas interviewed between July 7-10, 2020. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 points.

7/13/2020

CBS News Battleground Tracker poll: Outbreak reshapes presidential race in Sun Belt

Biden has an edge over Trump in Florida, while the two are neck and neck in Arizona and Texas.

The coronavirus outbreak is reshaping the presidential race in three key Sun Belt states. Joe Biden is now leading President Trump by six points in Florida, and the two are tied in Arizona and competitive in Texas, where Biden is down by just a point to Mr. Trump. Biden has made gains in part because most say their state’s efforts to contain the virus are going badly — and the more concerned voters are about risks from the outbreak, the more likely they are to support Biden.

More from the poll here.

7/2/2020

More from our poll: The impact of coronavirus by race

As coronavirus cases rise across the United States, our latest CBS News Poll finds Black and Hispanic Americans are more likely than White Americans to report being impacted by the virus on some key measures: more say they know someone who has had the virus and they express more concern about themselves or a family member contracting it.

Forty-two percent of Black people, along with a similar number of Hispanic people, say they themselves or someone they know has been diagnosed or gotten ill with COVID-19. This compares to 32% of White people.

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While the number who know someone who has had coronavirus grew for all racial groups compared to May, the increase is higher among Black and Hispanic Americans, compared to White Americans.

Concern about getting the coronavirus is higher among racial minorities. More than 8 in 10 Black people note at least some concern about themselves or someone in their family contracting the virus, including 42% who are very concerned. A similar percentage of Hispanic people express that level of concern. However, fewer White Americans, 31%, say they are very concerned about contracting the virus.

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On the matter of wearing masks, Black and Hispanic Americans say they are more likely to always wear a mask than White Americans, although a majority of those in each racial group see the decision about wearing one as a public health responsibility, rather than a personal choice.

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On testing, most Americans think widespread testing is at least somewhat important to help contain the spread of the virus, although Black people are more likely than White people to say it’s very important.

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And they are also more likely to believe the Trump Administration is limiting the number of tests given to American citizens, as opposed to trying to get tests to all Americans or to people who need them the most. Views on the Administration’s approach to testing is more mixed among White and Hispanic Americans.

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In assessing President Trump’s overall handling of the coronavirus outbreak, Black people are particularly critical. Eight in 10 say he’s doing a bad job, including 64% who say a very bad job. White people are split in their views. But political party affiliation also plays a role. White Democrats are more in line with those of Black people on this measure than White Republicans.

Most Hispanic people rate the President negatively on handling the outbreak.

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Looking ahead, Americans across racial groups are inclined to think the coronavirus will get worse rather than better over the summer, with Black and Hispanic Americans more likely to hold this view. – Elena Cox and Jennifer De Pinto


This CBS News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,009 U.S. adult residents interviewed between June 23-26, 2020. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 presidential vote and registration status. The margin of error is ± 2.6 points.

6/30/2020

Coronavirus: Which activities do people see as high risk?

Most Americans see public gatherings like protests and political rallies as activities that present a high risk for spreading the coronavirus. They tend to see the lifting of stay at home restrictions generally as a more moderate risk than a high one, although opinions vary based on one’s concern about getting the virus as well as the number of cases one sees in their own community.

People do assess different levels of risk for outdoor and indoor gatherings, describing the latter as high risk.

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With COVID-19 cases rising across the country, most think there is risk in lifting state at home orders with slightly more describing that risk as moderate (45%) than high (38%) and few describing this as having little or no risk. The more concerned people are personally about the virus the more likely they are to call lifting restrictions high risk. And a majority of those who say there are many coronavirus cases in their community call lifting restrictions high risk, while those who report having fewer cases in their area tend to call the risk moderate.

Six in 10 of those who feel their state opened too quickly say lifting restrictions in general presents a high risk.

We see political differences on this too with Republicans (who report less concern than the public overall about contracting the virus) more inclined to say lifting restrictions is a moderate risk than a high one. Most Democrats, on the other hand, call it high risk.

Majorities of Democrats describe both protests as well as political rallies as high risk for spreading the virus, while Republicans offer different risk assessments of the two. Two-thirds of Republicans believe protests and demonstrations are high risk events, while fewer (47%) describe political rallies and events that way. President Donald Trump, a Republican, is the only presidential candidate to have held a large-scale public campaign rally recently.

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Even though Republicans are less likely than Democrats to think political rallies are a high risk for spreading the coronavirus, they are more inclined to call it a high risk than a moderate one.

Americans view outdoor and indoor gatherings differently. Just 29% think outdoor gatherings are high risk, while considerably more – 59% – think that about indoor gatherings.

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–by Jennifer De Pinto.

Elena Cox contributed to this report.


This CBS News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,009 U.S. adult residents interviewed between June 23-26, 2020. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 presidential vote and registration status. The margin of error is ± 2.6 points.


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Most would be uncomfortable attending large events

Amid the coronavirus outbreak, a majority of Americans would be uncomfortable attending a large public event, according to a recent CBS News Poll. And most said they won’t feel comfortable attending until either a vaccine is widely available or that they may never feel comfortable.

Two-thirds of Americans (68%) said they would be uncomfortable attending a large public gathering like a concert or sporting event, including 44% who would feel very uncomfortable doing so. More men (37%) than women (27%) would be comfortable attending such an event, but majorities of both would feel uncomfortable.

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Personal concern about contracting the coronavirus is related to one’s comfort level about attending a large public event. Sixty-eight percent of those very concerned about contracting the coronavirus said they would be very uncomfortable attending a large-scale public event. Americans who expressed less concern would be more comfortable.

When might people feel comfortable attending big events? Among those who said they would be uncomfortable going to large events, thirty percent said it would be when the virus is more contained. But more – half – would feel comfortable going to a large event only after a vaccine is widely available. And one in five said that they may not ever feel comfortable.

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Most Americans don’t expect large scale events to get back to the way they were any time soon. Just 17% believed such events would start by the end of the year and look much like what they did before. Half thought big events could return by this year with social distancing guidelines and restrictions. About a quarter did not expect them to return this year. Few said they would never return. There was more optimism about large events returning this year among those who felt comfortable attending them than those who felt uncomfortable doing so.

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This CBS News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,000 U.S. adult residents interviewed between June 20-24, 2020. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 presidential vote and registration status. The margin of error is ± 3.8 points.

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6/12/2020

Using an Alarm to Wake Up…and “Hitting Snooze”

Nearly half (45%) of Americans use some form of alarm to wake up in the morning, but slightly more than half (55%) do not.

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Having a job or being in school is largely a determining factor. While 58% of Americans who are either working or going to school use an alarm, this is true of just 25% of Americans who are not employed or going to school. Having kids also makes a difference. While 60% of parents of children under 18 use an alarm, just 41% of those who do not have kids do so.

Older Americans – who are both less likely to be employed and less likely to have children under 18 in their households – are less likely than younger Americans to use an alarm. While majorities of Americans under 45 use an alarm, this is true of just 11% of Americans 65 and older.

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But most Americans who use an alarm don’t rise as soon as it goes off. Seven in 10 hit the snooze button at least once before rising, including 20% who hit the snooze button twice, and 18% of Americans hit the snooze button at least three times before getting up.

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-Fred Backus

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This poll was conducted by telephone May 12-17, 2020 among a random sample of 1,007 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

Do you usually use an alarm to wake you up in the morning, or not?

Yes 45%

No 55

Don’t know/no answer 1

On a typical morning, how many times do you hit the snooze button on your alarm before you get out of bed?

********** USE AN ALARM **********

Once 34%

Twice 20

Three times 11

Four times 3

Five times or more 4

None/don’t hit snooze 27

Don’t know/no answer 1

6/11/2020

Since the Coronavirus Outbreak, Americans are Doing More Cooking, and Watching More TV

Most Americans are watching more movies and TV shows than before the coronavirus outbreak, and they are doing more cooking as well. About a third of Americans say they are reading more books. But when it comes to exercising, things are more mixed. While 28% say they are exercising more, the same percentage are exercising less.

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The same holds true for playing board games and jigsaw puzzles: 24% are doing more but 25% are doing less. 43% are doing about the same amount.

– Fred Backus

———————————————————————————————————————-

This poll was conducted by telephone May 12-17, 2020 among a random sample of 1,007 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

Since the coronavirus outbreak began, are you doing more, less, or the same amount of each of the following activities?

a. Cooking

More 53%

Less 9

Same amount 37

Don’t know/no answer 1

b. Exercising

More 28%

Less 28

Same amount 43

Don’t know/no answer 1

d. Reading books

More 35%

Less 19

Same amount 42

Don’t know/no answer 4

e. Playing board games or jigsaw puzzles

More 24%

Less 25

Same amount 43

Don’t know/no answer 9

f. Watching movies and television shows

More 55%

Less 9

Same amount 35

Don’t know/no answer 1

6/8/2020

CBS News poll: Americans weigh in on issues before the Supreme Court

The latest CBS News poll asked Americans about their views on some issues related to cases before the U.S. Supreme Court, which announces its opinions in most cases before adjourning for the summer at the end of June or beginning of July. Here’s what we found:

6/4/2020

Americans’ views shift on racial discrimination

As thousands protest, their message is getting across. Comparing views at this moment to decades of CBS News polling, today we see more people — both white and black — saying racial discrimination affects both treatment by police and chances of getting ahead. And a declining number see progress in getting rid of it.

Where Americans had once shown increasing optimism about ending discrimination against blacks, those sentiments have turned downward lately, back toward levels we saw in the 1990s.

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For years, many black Americans have steadily felt whites are at an advantage. But Americans overall have said that black and whites had equal chances of getting ahead in society. Today that’s changed.

Now 52% believe whites have a better chance, up 13 points from 2015, and the highest number in CBS News polling going back to 1997. The number who still see both whites and blacks having an equal chance of getting ahead has dropped 9 points.

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More here.

Nearly one in five say coronavirus has caused financial hardship

Overall, most Americans say their family has been financially affected in some way by the coronavirus outbreak and the subsequent lockdowns.

Almost one in five Americans describe the impact as a hardship. Larger numbers describe it as inconvenient or difficult but would not go so far as to call it a hardship. Most Americans, however, remain optimistic that jobs will come back.

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More here.

6/2/2020

And some more from today’s poll:

In our new poll, we find Democrats satisfied – but not all of them excited – about Joe Biden as the party’s nominee, though they are still overwhelmingly voting for him.

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This CBS News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,071 U.S. residents interviewed between May 29 – June 1, 2020. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 presidential vote and registration status. The margin of error is ± 2.6 points.

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New CBS News Poll:

Americans see differences in how police treat whites, blacks; see Trump tweets as divisive

A 57% majority of Americans think police generally treat whites better than blacks. Blacks, in particular, say this, at 78%. There are also differences on these views by party: most Republicans feel the police treat everyone equally, while among Democrats, 80% see differential treatment against black people.

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More here.

Americans worry outbreak will worsen as things reopen; see larger impact in minority communities

As areas around the country reopen, most fear the coronavirus pandemic will now get worse as a result of reopening, and most continue to say the effort against the outbreak is going badly.

By about two to one, Americans worry the reopening is going to make the outbreak worse, rather than have no effect.

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More here.

5/15/2020

More from the new CBS News Poll

Americans see different impact of coronavirus across communities – and in the death toll; many see changes in food prices

Americans perceive wide disparities along class, racial, and geographic lines in whose health they think will be most affected by the coronavirus: the working class more so than the wealthy; cities and suburbs more than rural areas; African-American and Hispanic communities more so than white communities; and older people more so than younger ones – though most now do think children can be affected.

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More here.

5/14/2020

CBS News Poll: Partisan gap grows over return to work

There may be debate over when to open the economy, but the partisan gap over it is already opening wide.

And Americans’ timeline for things returning to “normal” has been pushed back dramatically.

A large majority of the public still prioritizes staying home to slow the outbreak over reopening the economy, partly because they continue to think efforts to contain the outbreak are going badly. But now there’s a growing gap between Republicans and others on reopening, as Republicans increasingly adopt the White House’s call to do so: 62% of Republicans want the country to prioritize going back to work even if it exposes more people to the virus — that’s up 10 points from three weeks ago in late April.

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More here.

President Trump’s Marks for Handling Outbreak Decline;

Most Americans Trust Fauci, but Republicans Divide

Americans continue to say they trust medical professionals for virus information, but Republicans also rank President Trump about as highly among their trusted sources, even as others give him his lowest marks to date for handling the outbreak.

And Dr. Anthony Fauci is trusted by most and viewed favorably by a three-to-one margin — but Fauci now draws split opinions among Republicans, driven by increasingly negative views from conservatives.

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Views of President Trump’s handling of the outbreak continue to drop from March and are now the lowest he has received. Today, 43% say he’s doing a good job, 5 points lower than three weeks ago and 10 points lower than in March.

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More here.

When Will Things Return to Normal? Longer than Americans Thought…

Americans continue to think the U.S. effort to contain the outbreak is going badly, and fewer think it is going well now than did last month.

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Amid reports of slowing cases in some areas and rising caseloads in others, those who feel the effort is going badly also feel things will not get better in the next few months. Moreover, more people now feel it will take longer for things to return to normal.

In March, 22% of Americans thought it would be in the next year or longer that things would return to normal. Today that’s up to nearly half who think it will be that long.

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More here.

Most Americans Say They’re Wearing Masks.

Most Americans (69%) say they now wear a mask or face covering at least most of the time when they go out. Those very concerned about getting the virus themselves, and who live in places where they say there are many cases, are especially likely to do so. Urban and suburban dwellers say they wear masks more often than those in rural areas.

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More here.

5/12/20

Coronavirus Curtailing Summer Travel Plans for Many Americans

A CBS News Poll conducted last month showed that just 22% of Americans were planning to go away for a vacation this summer, a 16-point drop from the percentage that said they were planning to last year in June 2019.

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Furthermore, most of those Americans who still had plans said they were at least somewhat likely to cancel them due to the coronavirus outbreak. Seven in 10 said this was at least somewhat likely, including almost a quarter who said it was very likely.

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Of the three in four Americans who didn’t have travel plans, more than a third had cancelled plans they had made due to the outbreak. Overall, 43% of Americans in April had either already cancelled their travel plans due to the coronavirus, or said they were likely to do so.

– Fred Backus

————————————————————————————————————————

This poll was conducted by telephone April 14-19, 2020 among a random sample of 1,013 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables.

The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

Are you planning to go away for a vacation this summer?

* TOTAL RESPONDENTS *

Yes 22%

No 75

Don’t know/no answer 4

How likely do you think it is that you will have to cancel your vacation because of the coronavirus outbreak?

* IF PLANNING TO GO AWAY FOR VACATION THIS SUMMER *

Very likely 22

Somewhat likely 47

Not very likely 16

Not at all likely 12

Already cancelled vacation plans (vol.) 3

Don’t know/no answer 1

Did you have plans to go away for a vacation this summer that you canceled because of the coronavirus outbreak, or were you never planning on traveling for vacation this summer?

* IF NOT PLANNING TO GO AWAY FOR VACATION THIS SUMMER *

Canceled because of coronavirus 36

Never planning on traveling 62

Canceled for other reasons (vol.) 1

Don’t know/no answer 1

5/8/2020

Connecting with Mom this Mother’s Day

Most Americans don’t plan on seeing their Mother in person this Mother’s Day. While a third of Americans plan to see their mother in person, nearly as many will call her on the phone, while a quarter will use some sort of video conferencing software such as Zoom or FaceTime.

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This is a big difference from three years ago. Back in 2017, 52% of Americans planned to see their mother in person, and just 36% planned on contacting her via the telephone or a video conferencing application.

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As they were three years ago, younger adults are more likely to expect to see their mother in person than older ones. 45% of Americans under 35 with a living mother plan to see her person, more than who plan to connect in some other way. In contrast, adults between 35 and 44 are more inclined towards videoconferencing to connect with Mom, while those 45 and older will most likely pick up the phone.

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In general, few Americans are visiting friends or family in person in order to stay in touch these days. 58% say talking on the phone is how they’ve mostly been keeping in touch with friends and family, while 31% are mostly using a video conferencing application like Zoom, Skype, or FaceTime. Just 7% are mostly seeing friends and family in person.

– Fred Backus

This poll was conducted by telephone April 14-19, 2020 among a random sample of 1,013 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables.

The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

How do you plan to contact your mother this Mother’s Day? Will you…? 1. See her in person. 2. Call her on the phone, 3. Use a video conferencing applications like, Zoom, Skype, or FaceTime, 4. Send an email, text message, or digital card, 5. Send a card or letter in the mail.

* Americans with a Living Mother *

See her in person 33%

Call her on the phone 31

Use a video conferencing application 24

Send an email, text message, or digital card 3

Send a card or letter in the mail 3

Some other way (vol.) 1

Won’t contact/Don’t know my mother (vol.) 2

Don’t know/no answer 2

5/7/2020

More on the financial impact of the coronavirus outbreak

As millions more people file unemployment claims, our polling from late April found a third of Americans saying they were already feeling the financial impact of the lockdown due to the coronavirus outbreak. 41% say they could go on at least another few weeks before finances become a problem.

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Those with lower household incomes were more apt to say they were they already feeling the financial impact.

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Even among those who have been financially impacted already, most said the nation’s priority should be to slow spread of the virus (72%) over getting the economy going (28%). – Jennifer De Pinto

This CBS News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,025 U.S. residents interviewed between April 7-9, 2020. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 presidential vote and registration status. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 points.

5/5/2020

Connecting in the Age of Coronavirus: Most Americans Turn to the Telephone

While many Americans may have been learning how to access video conferencing software in order to connect with others, Americans are mostly turning to the telephone to stay in touch. 58% say talking on the phone is how they’ve mostly been keeping in touch with friends and family. In comparison, just 31% are mostly using a video conferencing application like Zoom, Skype, or FaceTime.

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There are generational differences. Americans under 45 are nearly as likely to use video conferencing to keep up with friends and family as they are to talk on the phone, while older Americans are far more likely to rely on the telephone. Six in 10 Americans between 45 and 54, and about three in four Americans 55 and older, are mostly talking on the phone to stay in touch.

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– Fred Backus

———————————————————————————————————————–

This poll was conducted by telephone April 14-19, 2020 among a random sample of 1,013 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables.

The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

Since the coronavirus outbreak, how have you mostly been keeping in touch with friends and family? 1. Seeing them in person, 2.Talking on the phone, 3. Using a video conferencing application like Zoom, Skype, or FaceTime.

Talking on the phone 58%

Using a video conferencing application 31

Seeing them in person 7

Haven’t been speaking with anyone (vol.) 1

Some other way (vol.) 1

Don’t know/no answer *

* is less than .5%

5/4/2020

CBS News poll: Elizabeth Warren tops Democrats’ wish list for Biden’s vice president

Economic expertise and crisis management skills are top qualities Democratic voters want to see in a vice-presidential pick for their party — even more so than executive or legislative experience — as concerns about the pandemic and the economy now become a lens through which voters see that selection process.

Those criteria become even more important to Democrats who are very concerned about either their own job losses, or contracting the coronavirus themselves.

Elizabeth Warren is well atop Democratic voters’ list of those who should be considered for vice president — with 71% saying she should be — and Warren also outpaces other possible picks by a wide margin as their first choice for the job: Warren at 36% first choice, to Kamala Harris’ 19%, Stacey Abrams at 14%, and Amy Klobuchar at 13%. No one else gets over 4%.

More here.

4/30/2020

More than Half think the Environment Will be Worse for the Next Generation

Though Most Think Stopping Climate Change is Within Humanity’s Control

Many Americans remain pessimistic about the condition of the environment that will be left for the next generation, though most nevertheless think it is within humanity’s power to stop. How Americans view global warming largely determines how they view these issues, and large partisan divisions persist.

51% of Americans think the environment will be worse for the next generation, while just 17% think it will be better.

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Most Democrats and independents think the environment will be worse, while Republicans are more apt to say it will be about the same.

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Though few Americans are optimistic about the environment for the next generation, most do think climate change is something that can be solved. Six in 10 Americans think humanity can do something to stop climate change – twice as many who think climate change is beyond humanity’s control. Most Democrats and independents think something can be done, while Republicans are divided.

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When it comes to what causes climate change or global warming, a majority Americans continues to think the problem has been one of humanity’s own making. Six in 10 Americans think global warming has been caused mostly by human activity such as burning fossil fuels, while just a quarter think it’s due to natural patterns in the earth’s environment. Another 5% doesn’t think global warming exists at all.

The percentage who thinks global warming is caused by human activity has remained steady over the past two years, though it is much larger than the 42% who said so in 2011.

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While majorities of Democrats and independents think global warming is due to human activity, just 36% of Republicans agree. Instead, most Republicans think that it is either caused by natural patterns in the earth’s environment (46%) or that it doesn’t exist at all (12%).

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How a person views global warming tends to indicate how they feel about both the future of the environment as well as what can be done about climate change. Most Americans who think global warming is caused by human activity think the environment will be worse for future generations, while those who think it is caused by natural patterns are more likely to think the environment will not change much.

And while three in four Americans who think global warming is caused by human activity think humans can solve climate change, most who think it is caused by natural patterns think it is beyond humanity’s control.

– Fred Backus

_________________________________________________________________________

This poll was conducted by telephone April 14-19, 2020 among a random sample of 1,013 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables.

The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

Do you think the condition of the environment for the next generation will be better, worse, or about the same as it is now?

Better 17

Worse 51

Same 31

Don’t Know/no answer 2

Which statement comes closest to your view about global warming? 1. Global warming is caused mostly by human activity such as burning fossil fuels. 2. Global warming is caused mostly by natural patterns in the earth’s environment. 3. Global warming does not exist.

Human activity 60

Natural causes 24

Doesn’t exist 5

Caused by both (vol.) 7

Don’t know what causes it (vol.) 2

Don’t Know/No answer 2

As best you can tell, do you think humanity could do something to stop or slow down climate change, if everyone really tried, or do you think climate change is beyond humanity’s control?

Humanity can stop climate change 62

Beyond humanity’s control 33

Don’t know/No answer 5

4/28/2020

Anxious about the Coronavirus? Some turn to Religion, Others to TV

Americans are turning in a lot of different directions for comfort these days when anxious about the coronavirus, but the top two choices are religion and spirituality (21%) and television and streaming (20%). 17% pick exercise, and behind that comes music (13%).

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There are differences between men and women on this matter though. While Americans of either gender turn to television and streaming in about equal percentages, women are more inclined towards religion and spirituality than men, while men are more inclined towards exercise than women.

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There are age differences as well. Younger adults under 35 turn to exercise and music most frequently. While seniors turn more to religion and television.

Americans who associate with a religious denomination turn to religion and spirituality the most, while those who do not turn to music, exercise, or television.

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-Fred Backus

————————————————————————————————-

This poll was conducted by telephone April 14-19, 2020 among a random sample of 1,013 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables.

The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

Where do you mostly turn to for comfort these days when you feel anxious or stressed about the coronavirus outbreak?

* TOTAL RESPONDENTS *

Religion or spirituality 21 %

Television and streaming 20 %

Exercise 17 %

Music 13 %

Reading 10 %

Food 6 %

Meditation 3 %

Family/friends 2%

Don’t know/no answer 4 %

4/27/2020

Most Say States Should Make Voting by Mail Easier

A majority of Americans think states should make it easier to vote by mail in 2020, and most say they would prefer to vote that way this November. Views are marked by some partisan differences but also related to whether people have voted by mail in past elections.

Fifty-five percent of Americans think states should make it easier to vote by mail – more than three times as many than say states should make it harder (16%). About three in 10 say the vote by mail process shouldn’t change.

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Three-quarters of Democrats (77%), along with more than half of independents, want states to make mail voting easier. Comparatively fewer Republicans hold that view, but on balance, more Republicans think states should make it easier (34%) than harder (27%). A plurality (39%) don’t think states should change their vote by mail process.

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Partisans also express different personal preferences in how they wish to vote this November. If they could choose, nearly two-thirds of Democrats would prefer to vote by mail in the fall, but about two-thirds of Republicans say they wish to vote in person. – Jennifer De Pinto

This CBS News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,025 U.S. residents interviewed between April 7-9, 2020. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 presidential vote and registration status. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 points.

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4/26/2020

Coronavirus: More from our latest CBS News Poll

China: A large 75% of Americans believe China knew more about Coronavirus than it told the world. This cuts across party lines.

Americans’ stress levels: 40% describe themselves as having more stress now compared to how they felt at the start of the outbreak. 43% have the same amount and only 16% have less. (Couple this with our other new findings that many Americans are reluctant to go out even if things open up, and the financial concerns they have, and it’s hardly surprising they feel more stress. People more concerned about getting the virus and who’ve been financially impacted report more stress.)

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Watching the news: Watching news reports about the outbreak makes people feel informed and nervous at the same rate: asked a list of emotions, 46% say they feel “informed” when they watch the news about the outbreak these days, and 46% also said “nervous.” Nearly as many include feeling “angry” (40%). Few feel either “reassured” (11%) or uplifted (6%).

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Impact: Americans do see – and acknowledge – a disproportionate impact of the virus on different communities. 81% say there will be a lot of impact in cities compared to 33% who see a lot in rural areas.

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Most Americans also believe black and Hispanic communities have been harder-hit, and older people more so than younger ones.

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On Politics: Half of Americans say it would not be appropriate for candidates and parties to be doing campaign- related things like running ads and asking for support. Fewer than half – 44% – of registered voters say they are thinking a lot about the Presidential contest right now.

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The questions and context are different – and there is little campaign activity now to pay attention to, even if they wanted to – but we should note that is lower than measures of attention found in April of 2016, when 57% were paying a lot.

This CBS News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,112 U.S. residents interviewed between April 20-22, 2020. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 presidential vote and registration status. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 points.

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4/24/2020

More from the latest CBS News Poll:

Most Foresee a Country Forever Changed after Coronavirus

More than half of Americans think day-to-day life in the nation will be permanently changed as a result of the coronavirus. And even more so than last month, many are bracing for a long period before social activities can resume.

Fifty-four percent of Americans think daily life — the way people interact with each other and the way they work — will be permanently changed, while 46% think things will eventually return to normal.

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More here.

4/23/2020

Americans prioritize staying home and worry restrictions will lift too fast – CBS News poll

-Health concerns still take precedence over economic ones by a wide margin for Americans in their views on when to re-open the economy – both in what they want for the nation, and in what they’d do themselves. Many say they need to be confident the outbreak is over before returning to public places, and large majorities of all partisans agree the stay-at-home orders are effective.

-Most Americans say their state’s governor should make the decisions about whether to reopen the economy in their area, rather than President Trump or their local county or city officials. And most say widespread testing is a necessity for doing so.

-A majority of Americans (62%) oppose the protesters who have been in state capitals recently calling for lifting of state lockdowns; by nearly three to one Americans oppose rather than support them.

-The public overwhelmingly approves of Congress passing additional legislation that would provide funds to small businesses impacted by the outbreak: approval stands at 88%, and crosses partisan lines to include about nine in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents.

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More here.

4/17/20

Spring: What Americans were Looking Forward to (before coronavirus)

Before spring arrived – and before Americans across the country were ordered to stay at home for much of the time – many Americans were looking forward to spending more time outdoors.

In an early March poll, it was the top pick when people were asked to choose what they most looked forward to about spring. A third of Americans – 37% – say it’s the thing they look forward to the most about spring, followed by warmer temperatures (23%), longer days (15%), and flowers blooming (11%).

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This poll was conducted by telephone March 10-15, 2020 among a random sample of 1,006 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers.The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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4/10/20

Views of Trump’s handling of coronavirus outbreak slip again – CBS News poll

Most Americans continue to think the battle against the coronavirus outbreak is going badly, and few would feel comfortable being out in crowded spaces now. There’s a collective uncertainty about where things are headed next, since just as many think things will get better as get worse, but that nonetheless reflects more optimism than Americans had last week, when their outlook was even more dire.

Views on President Trump’s handling of the outbreak response have ticked down for the second consecutive week. The president is seen doing a good job by 47%, down four points from 51% last week and 53% the prior week. Now is the first time more say he’s doing a bad job than a good one.

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More here.

Americans fear coronavirus outbreak will leave U.S. in recession – CBS News poll

Americans have an increasingly negative view of the economy’s financial health, and their prognosis for it is not upbeat: only a third expect this downturn to be temporary. And as often happens, many are interpreting the nation’s economic fate through their own experience. Those most concerned about losing work, including those who already have, are the most likely to say the U.S. is headed for a recession, or even depression.

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More here.

4/8/20

How Joe Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee — polling analysis

As Bernie Sanders exits the race for president, here are 5 takeaways from CBS News exit polls and primary polls and how Joe Biden became the presumptive nominee. The last polls were conducted for the March 17 primaries.

4/2/20

Half of Americans Say Coronavirus Outbreak Will Get Worse Over the Next Month

Americans are bracing for a difficult April.

Fifty-one percent say the coronavirus outbreak will get worse in the next month, and another 21% expect it to continue as it is now; only 28% say things will get better in the coming weeks. Seventy-seven percent say doctors and nurses don’t have the supplies they’ll need.

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Marks for President Trump’s handling of the outbreak remain mixed and have not dramatically changed from last week, with 51% saying he’s doing a good job — down two points since last week — and 49% a bad one.

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More here.

4/3/2020

High approval for economic relief package amid concern about job loss – CBS News poll

Most Americans continue to express concern about themselves or a household member either losing their job or seeing a reduction in paid work hours in the next few months — or say it has already happened to them.

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This includes 24% of those working full- or part-time who are very concerned.

The public overwhelmingly supports the $2 trillion economic relief package passed by Congress: 81% approve overall, a view that crosses partisan lines. However, most (57%) say it won’t end up being enough, including most people who approve of the package overall.

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More here.

3/27/20

How Many Americans Have a Personal Computer in their Homes?

With millions of Americans now isolated in their homes, access to technology at home may be more important than ever. One bit of technology that most Americans have at home is a personal computer, though access is hardly uniform.

A recent CBS News poll conducted in February shows that 72% of Americans have a personal computer in their home, an 18 point jump from when we asked the question in 1998. Back then, just over half of Americans had one.

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But those with higher incomes are far more likely to have a personal computer than lower income Americans. While nine in 10 Americans earning $100,000 a year or more have a personal computer, this is true of just 47% of Americans who earn less than $25,000 a year.

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There is division by education as well. Americans with higher levels of education are more likely to have a personal computer than those with lower education levels. – Fred Backus

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This poll was conducted by telephone February 11-16, 2020 among a random sample of 1,004 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

3/26/20

A Third of Americans Don’t Have an Emergency Fund

As the country deals the coronavirus outbreak, recent CBS News polling shows that many Americans do not have an emergency fund that can cover their immediate living expenses in the event of a job loss or other financial emergency. 63% of Americans have such a fund, but 35% do not.

Polling was conducted between March 10 and March 15, 2020, before any U.S. states ordered shutdowns on nonessential businesses.

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There are differences by income. While nearly all Americans earning over $100,000 dollars a year have an emergency fund, just about half of Americans earning less than $50,000 a year do.

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Even though a majority of Americans have some sort of emergency fund, most do not have a fund that will last them more than six months. A third don’t have any emergency fund at all, and another 22% have a fund that will only last them about six months or less. 14% have a fund that will last from six months to a year, while 20% have a fund that will last a year or more.

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Americans with higher incomes have an emergency fund that will last them longer. 62% of Americans earning over $100,000 a year have a fund that will last them six months or more, while this is true of just 24% of Americans earning under $50,000 a year. – Fred Backus

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This poll was conducted by telephone March 10-15, 2020 among a random sample of 1,006 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

3/25/20

Views of economy drop, but Americans optimistic about recovery — CBS News poll

Assessments of the economy have plummeted, and many are concerned about a potential job loss, but most Americans are optimistic about the economy’s ability to rebound in the future.

Now, just over a quarter of Americans say the economy is in good shape, a drop of 32 points from December when 6 in 10 said the economy was at least somewhat good.

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Still, 58% of Americans are upbeat about the economy’s ability to recover quickly. Americans at all income levels are more likely to be optimistic than pessimistic, as are Americans across all age groups.

more here.

3/24/20

Two new CBS News polls on America’s response to the coronavirus…

Americans see months-long pandemic fight ahead — CBS News poll

Most Americans (57%) say the nation’s efforts to combat the coronavirus are going badly right now, most call it a crisis and see a months-long process before it is contained. But the public is pinning its hopes heavily on the nation’s scientists, with eight in 10 optimistic about their ability to eventually find a cure or vaccine, and most are also optimistic that Americans themselves can take steps to slow the spread.

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More here.

With Americans in lockdown, hope and calm beat nervousness — CBS News poll

Amid the coronavirus outbreak, the personal has become national: the more danger you think you and your family are in from the virus, the more trouble you think the country is in, too.

Americans report staying calm and hopeful most of the time amid the outbreak, punctuated with feelings of nervousness and stress — especially for those who aren’t going out, and particularly for those concerned they’ll get the virus themselves. Few feel lonely often, even among those not leaving the house, and most remain optimistic that their fellow Americans will take steps needed to stop the spread.

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More here.

2/24/20

CBS News poll: Most voters expect Trump will be reelected

Whether or not they’re voting for him, 65% of registered voters nationwide think President Trump will definitely or probably be reelected, including more than a third of Democrats who think so. Republicans are especially optimistic: more than 9 in 10 expect him to win.

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More here.

CBS News poll: In South Carolina, Biden’s lead narrows, with Sanders and Steyer on his heels

The contest in South Carolina looks very different heading into its final week than it did last fall. Joe Biden (28%) has only a single-digit lead with Bernie Sanders (23%) now right behind him. The race has narrowed considerably since the fall, when Biden led the field by a whopping 28 points. Support for the former vice president has fallen by double-digits as Sanders and businessman Tom Steyer have made gains. Steyer is at 18%.

This poll was finished before Sanders coasted to a win in the Nevada caucuses Saturday night — though most South Carolina voters told us the Nevada results would not impact them.

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More here.

2/14/2020: Valentine’s Day Polling

For Valentine’s Day, we’ve got some special polling on romance, reconnecting with old flames, blind dates, and office romances.

How Romantic Are You?

Most Americans think of themselves as romantic, though just 23% would describe themselves as “very romantic”. 40% say they are “somewhat” romantic, while 35% say they’re not romantic.

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Woman are more likely to say they are very romantic than men, while men are more likely than woman to describe themselves as not romantic.

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Getting Back in Touch with Old Flames

About a quarter of Americans are still in touch with someone they had a romantic relationship with in high school, though the further away from their high school years they are, the less likely this is to be so. Still, nearly a quarter of Americans over 50 are still in contact with someone from high school they were romantically involved with.

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Many Americans have taken advantage of social media to get back in touch with past romantic partners: 28% of Americans have done so. This is particularly true of younger adults.

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Far fewer married Americans have taken advantage of this option, however. Just 20% of married Americans have used social media to get back in touch with an old flame, compared to 37% of Americans who are not currently married.

Blind Dates

A little more than a third of Americans have been on a blind date at some point in their lives – that is, gone out on a date with someone they’ve never met in person before. 35% of Americans have done so, while 64% have not.

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Those between the ages of 45 and 54 are the most likely to have gone on a blind date – nearly half have – more than Americans who are younger or older than this group.

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One other group of Americans is also more likely to have been on a blind date than others: Americans who are either separated or divorced. 49% of separated or divorced Americans have been on a blind date, compared to just a third of Americans who are either now married or have never been so.

Office Romance

Just over a quarter of Americans have participated in a romantic relationship with a work colleague. 27% have done this, while 71% have not. Americans who are currently separated or divorced are more likely to have been in an office romance than either married Americans or those who have never been married.

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Many businesses have policies that prohibit intra-office romances, and many Americans don’t agree with such sanctions. 41% think businesses should allow romantic relationships between colleagues who work together, while just 34% think such relationships should not be allowed. Another 19% say it depends. Most Americans who have participated in an “office romance” think they should be allowed, while those who have not are divided.

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-Fred Backus


This poll was conducted by telephone January 14-19, 2020 among a random sample of 1,006 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cellphones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

2/12/2020: Sanders Wins New Hampshire

Bernie Sanders won the New Hampshire primary last night. We too, a look at at last night’s exit polls to see how he did it here.

2/10/2020: The Latest from New Hampshire

In New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders is trying to hold onto his lead against Pete Buttigieg, who has made gains coming off of the Iowa caucuses. Here, we present three of the possible scenarios that we might see Tuesday night — including different possible winners — that may illustrate the dynamics in this still-evolving race.

See what could happen here.

2/4/2020: The State of the Union

President Trump will give his final State of the Union address of his first term to Congress tonight. Our recent CBS News national poll shows how Americans feel about how things are going in the country today.

More Americans feel positive about the state of the economy than they do about the state of the country overall. As Mr. Trump gets record high approval ratings on handling the economy, more think he has divided the country than united it. Seventy-five percent of U.S. adults say the economy is in good shape, the highest in almost 20 years.

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What Do Americans Want to Hear From Trump’s State of the Union

As is historically the case, more in the President’s own party plan to watch the State of Union address. Republicans (67%) are more than twice as likely as Democrats (30%) to say they are very likely to tune in.

Among those who plan to watch, national security and terrorism tops a list of what they most want to hear President Trump talk about; followed by the economy and jobs, and health care. Fewer think it’s most important for Mr. Trump to reach out to those who don’t support him. Building a border wall, criminal justice reform and criticizing Democrats rank lower.

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More from the poll here.

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2/3/2020: It’s the Iowa Caucuses: What Could Happen?

Our final CBS News Iowa Battleground Tracker offers a statistical simulation of the caucuses and some scenarios that might unfold on Monday. It looks like a close contest heading in, and the top candidates are all poised to win national delegates.

To show what could happen — and more importantly, why — we continued interviewing likely caucus-goers this week for their first- and second-choice preferences in our polling, then combined it with data on Iowa voters generally, and how the caucus system works across the state’s counties and districts.

Monday dawns with Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden even in first-choice support at 25% each in our baseline model, Pete Buttigieg very close behind at 21%, and Elizabeth Warren at 16%, also in position to accrue some national delegates. Amy Klobuchar is at 5% in our baseline estimate, and all other candidates are under 5%.

More here.

1/17/2020

Trusting Weather Forecasts, and Hot v. Cold Weather

With winter storms sweeping across much of the country this weekend, we’re taking a look at some weather related polling questions we asked last month. How much do Americans trust weather forecasts, and what type of weather do Americans prefer?

63% of Americans trust weather forecasts to be accurate at least most of the time. But 35% of Americans are more skeptical, saying they trust weather forecasts to accurately predict the weather only some of the time, or hardly ever. And though a majority trust weather forecasts most of the time, just 16% trust them nearly always.

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When it comes to what type of forecast they’d like to hear, Americans prefer hot weather to cold weather. 43% say they prefer hot weather, while far fewer – just 25% – prefer cold weather. 30% have no preference between the two.

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Hot weather is preferred everywhere, though Americans who live in the West are less likely to prefer hot weather than other regions of the country.

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And though hot weather is preferred by Americans of all ages, Americans under 65 are more likely to prefer cold weather than seniors.

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– Fred Backus

This poll was conducted by telephone December 10-15, 2019 among a random sample of 1,003 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were con